The EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 28 May to discuss possible sanctions against Venezuela following the country's elections on 20 May, relations with Iran at a time when the US has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, the situations in Gaza and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the future of the partnership between the EU and the ACP countries after 2020.
Venezuela. In their conclusions, the ministers could announce the adoption of new sanctions against Venezuela, after the holding of elections that were "neither transparent, nor credible, nor impartial", to use the words of a European diplomat. While the statement of 22 May from High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini, made on behalf of the EU27, warned that the EU was considering new sanctions (see EUROPE 12025), the ministers are expected to go further and announce that the EU will soon take new measures. "Very clearly, we will take the political decision to move in the direction of a concise individual list that will highlight those responsible for the violence and crackdowns" in Venezuela, a European diplomat revealed. "We will then enter the process where we negotiate a list, hopefully for the next Council", the diplomat added, believing that "a sufficient number" of people needed to be sanctioned for "this to be credible". The next Council is planned in Luxembourg on 25 June. "There is already a discussion under way on a possible list", a European source stated, according to whom the people who could be sanctioned are expected to be linked to the organisation of the elections. The EU previously adopted sanctions against Venezuela in November 2017 (see EUROPE 11903) and in January 2018 (see EUROPE 11944).
In addition to this announcement, the ministers are expected to reiterate, in their conclusions, their readiness to help the Venezuelan people. "We are also ready to look with our different instruments at how to bring support to Venezuelan civil society", the same diplomat added. In addition, the Europeans are expected to call for new elections.
Iran. The Council will return to the Iranian nuclear deal. While this is the third Council in a row in which this issue is to be addressed, it is the first since the US announcement to withdraw from this deal. The meeting also comes after the Sofia summit where the European leaders called on the Commission to take support measures for European businesses (see EUROPE 12022), the announcement of these measures (see EUROPE 12023) and the meeting of the Joint Commission in Vienna on 25 May. "One of the challenges is to be assured of the Europeans' unity on a symbolic dossier", the European diplomat stated. The EU needs to speak of its own interests, but it must not end up in a confrontation with the member states, the diplomat added. Another objective of the discussion is to be assured of the EU28's support for continuing the discussions with Iran on its ballistic programme and its regional role.
Middle East. Over lunch, the ministers will focus on the situation in Gaza. In recent weeks, over 100 Palestinians have been killed and 6,000 wounded in gunfire from the Israeli army during demonstrations at the Gaza border (see EUROPE 12019). The ministers could once again call on the Palestinians and Israelis for restraint, and for humanitarian access to Gaza, and they could discuss what should be done to encourage the two sides to re-engage in talks, at a time when the US plan on the Middle East could be presented in the coming days.
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The EU foreign ministers will have an exchange of views on the situation in the DRC and on the challenges to be addressed as regards the general elections planned on 23 December. The discussion on the political, humanitarian and security situation in this crisis-ridden country was requested by Belgium, which wants the EU to remain attentive to the situation in the DRC. "It is not obvious at the moment when attention is focused on the Middle East, over the Atlantic and on Russia", a different diplomatic source stated on Friday.
This exchange of views comes as part of the constant efforts of the EU, United Nations, African Union (AU), International Organisation of the Francophonie (OIF) and neighbouring countries of the DRC for credible, transparent and inclusive elections to finally take place. "We are fairly optimistic that the elections can be held by the end of 2018. Kabila is committed to this. The moment of truth will be when the opposition can participate", another source said.
Ahead of the session, the foreign ministers of Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands have written jointly to Mogherini to underline the need for the EU to remain attentive to the situation.
The Council conclusions, adopted last December, are still valid (see EUROPE 11923). They underlined respect of the Saint-Sylvestre Agreement, participation of the opposition and credible elections that the EU is ready to support.
The ministers will also tackle the humanitarian situation in the light of the recent Ebola epidemic in the country.
Post-Cotonou partnership. The ministers will additionally discuss the future partnership to be negotiated between the EU and the group of 79 ACP (Africa, Caribbean and Pacific) countries on the expiry of the Cotonou Agreement in February 2020. According to the Europeans, the "All ACP" framework agreement should cover democracy, human rights, economic growth and investment, climate change, the eradication of poverty, peace and security, and migration. The framework agreement is reportedly to be completed by tailor-made agreements with each region.
The Council was supposed to adopt the mandate formally on Monday, which would entrust the European Commission with starting the negotiations with the ACP countries in September – but nothing was sure on Friday. This possibility is indeed subject to the result of a last meeting of the national ambassadors to the EU (Coreper), which will finally take place on Monday morning, in order to try and find a language of compromise on migration that can accommodate Hungary and be acceptable for all the member states (see EUROPE 12026). This meeting was initially planned for the afternoon of Friday 25 May, but it was postponed.
While awaiting the end of the Coreper, opinions were divided on Friday as to the possibility of managing to reach an agreement. "We are hopeful that the Council will agree", a diplomatic source stated. Another source was more sceptical, however. "The negotiating mandate was initially due to be adopted on 22 May (Ed: at the Foreign Affairs Council in its development format) and it was not possible to accept it at the Coreper on Thursday. We need to see what will happen for the mandate to be presented at the joint ACP-EU Council of Ministers on 31 May and 1 June. In foreign policy, it is not possible to adopt a declaration with 27", the source stated, adding: "the EU language on migration is known and balanced, and must remain so".
North Korea. At the opening of the session, Mogherini is also expected to speak briefly about the summit between the USA and North Korea. Although on Thursday 24 May US President Donald Trump announced, in a letter on Twitter, the cancellation of the summit with the North Korean leader (planned to take place in Singapore on 12 June) due to disagreeable remarks to the USA from a senior official in North Korea, on Friday 25 May, Trump seemed open to possibly maintaining the summit.
Mogherini could also swiftly inform the ministers about the situation in Yemen or on the report published on Thursday 24 May on flight MH17 (see other article).
Prolongation of sanctions against Syria. The Council is also expected to adopt the prolongation, for a year, of the sanctions against Syria, due to the crackdown on the population. Over 250 people and 67 entities are subject to an assets freeze and/or a visa ban as part of this. The measures also cover an embargo on oil, restrictions on certain investments, a freeze on the assets of the Syrian Central Bank in the EU and restrictions on the export of equipment and technology likely to be used for the internal crackdown or for the surveillance and interception of internet or telephone communications.
The Council is furthermore expected to adopt without debate the conclusions on "Strengthened EU cooperation on security with Asia". These are due to underline the important possibilities that exist for deepening cooperation with strategic Asian partners and to make the cooperation more operational. The conclusions are also due to set out the main areas on which in-depth dialogue could focus.
In addition, conclusions are expected to be adopted on strengthening the civilian common security and defence policy (CSDP). The objective is to identify a series of actions to improve the effectiveness of the civilian CSDP on the ground, and to identify how the civil missions could contribute to addressing security threats and challenges, as part of the link between internal and external security. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang and Camille-Cerise Gessant)