While the Brexit din has largely died down in public, behind the scenes, EU negotiators are growing frustrated at the UK’s lack of solutions for the Irish border, customs and other separation issues.
Despite a third meeting on Ireland taking place this week, EU diplomats feel that British negotiators are still “at the very beginning” of their thinking.
One senior diplomat complained that the UK was recycling the “often unrealistic” ideas it put forward in a series of position papers last summer.
One option floated in those papers was a “customs partnership”, where the UK would mirror EU tariffs and customs rules for foreign imports destined for the European market, relying on technology and trust to trade.
The plan was dismissed by the EU as “magical thinking”, and the paper itself admits it is an “innovative and untested approach that would take time to develop and implement”.
Analysts at the Eurasia group think-tank now expect British premier Theresa May to make a “u-turn” and accept “some form of de facto customs union with the EU” by September.
“It looks increasingly likely that May is heading towards a form of customs union, without calling it that,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia’s managing director for Europe, in a note.
That “chimes with Brussels’ perspective”, the note said, where a customs union is “the lesser of the two evils” - while you would give up the freedom to do your own trade deals, you would avert the government collapse that would ensue if Northern Ireland were to split from the rest of the UK.
The latter, the UK says, is essentially what the EU’s “backstop” solution would do, and is therefore something that “no British prime minister” could agree to.
But a customs union would not avoid the need for border checks in Ireland, particularly veterinary and health inspections - which are made necessary by the large body of single market rules in place.
Leftist MEPs in the GUE/NGL group have said a “special designated status” would “reintegrate” Northern Ireland in the EU, including the single market “and/or” the customs union.
Leaving aside the DUP’s fierce opposition to the plan, the term “special status” is a loaded one in Northern Ireland. Irish paramilitaries in British jails had a “special category status” as de facto political prisoners until 1976. The loss of the privilege prompted now-infamous dirty protests and deadly hunger strikes.
UK negotiators still hope to solve the Irish issue via a wide-ranging free trade deal, and see the backstop as a bit of a semantic problem to be solved.
However, the EU refuses to get into substantive talks on trade until the backstop is agreed.
There is unlikely to be any movement from the UK before local elections on 3 May but officials on both the EU and UK sides are hoping a customs union amendment to the EU withdrawal bill will go through in the House of Lords later this month.
The House of Commons is also due to vote on it, and on separate Trade and Customs Bills after that, as well as the final Brexit treaty in the autumn.
A new round of Brexit talks gets underway in Brussels next Monday - minus Michel Barnier and David Davis - which will mark the first official negotiations on the future partnership.
But EU officials warned the bulk of the discussions will be on unresolved issues of Brexit past - i.e. Ireland and the rest of the withdrawal agreement.
The hope is still to get a preliminary deal on Ireland done by the 28-29 June European Council, without which the EU won’t sign off on the broader withdrawal agreement. (Sarah Collins)