The situation in Syria was initially expected to be the subject of a quick stock-take at the ‘Foreign Affairs’ Council in Luxembourg this Monday 16 April, but events of recent days have convinced the Twenty-Eight to discuss the situation at greater length.
Foreign Affairs Ministers to discuss responses to attack on Douma at their Council meeting
The suspected use of chemical weaponry by the Syrian regime will be central to the discussions. On 8 April 2018, the European External Action Service explicitly accused Damascus of having carried out a chemical attack the day before in Douma, in Eastern Ghouta. “The evidence suggests yet another chemical attack by the regime”, said its spokesperson (see EUROPE 11997).
Will the member states include this unequivocal position in the conclusions they will adopt at the Council? France has said that it has “clear evidence” of a chemical attack. It will try to convince its partners of the culpability of the Syrian regime, whilst the possibility of a coordinated military response with the United States and possibly the United Kingdom is being discussed a diplomatic level. “The repeated use of chemical weapons cannot remain without consequences”, the German Foreign Minister, Heiko Maas, warned on Friday 13 April, following a meeting with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, but denied the possibility of military action on his country’s part. The Council has several times reiterated that the use of chemical weapons was both a war crime and crime against humanity. He also stressed the need for those guilty of these crimes to be brought to justice. These elements are expected to be included in Monday’s conclusions.
If there are strikes over the weekend, the Council’s discussions would be turned on their heads. However, sources close to the dossier in Brussels declined to comment on the possibility. Senior European officials went no further than to call for a political solution, referring to Resolution 2254 of the United Nations Security Council and the Geneva communiqué of 2012. They also rejected any military solution to the Syrian crisis. “By Monday, many things could happen, at the UN Security Council (UNSC), but elsewhere as well”, a diplomat summed up. The Security Council was to meet again this Friday by request of Russia.
The Russians, as allies of Damascus, stress the risks of war between Russia and the United States in the event of strikes. However, the German minister said that it is up to Moscow to change its tune. “We cannot tolerate breakdowns at the Security Council due to Russia’s veto. We cannot go on like this. We need to increase the pressure on Russia to change it attitude. This is vital if we are to resolve the Syrian conflict”, he said.
The conclusions were also expected to refer to the need to focus on fighting terrorism, with the Turkish offensive in Afrin continuing, support for the moderate Syrian opposition and EU humanitarian aid. The EU may announce a further financial commitment at the so-called “Brussels 2” conference, to be held on 24 and 25 April 2018.
Discussions on sanctions against Tehran
Another hot topic at the moment is the agreement on Iranian nuclear (JCPOA), which is being threatened by the US, which has set a deadline of 12 May to sort out the agreement’s shortcomings. The debate is expected to consider how best to ensure that the JCPOA is preserved whilst responding to concerns over Tehran’s regional activities and ballistics programme, a European diplomat summed up. Another senior official stressed that the agreement was expected to remain separate from these two issues.
The countries of the E3, Germany, France and the UK, which negotiated the agreement and are in talks with Washington over keeping it in place, have proposed sanctions against Iran. According to Europa Press, 15 Iranians and Lebanese nationals involved in the war in Syria would be sanctioned. “As far as the “E3 concerned, doing nothing about Iran is not an option, inaction is not an option. If we do nothing, we know that it will be the non-renewal of the waivers [which suspend the sanctions] with the consequences that would have”, a source from one of the three countries said.
There is not unanimity on the sanctions, which are to be discussed by the ministers. Some states consider that there is no guarantee that the American President’s vision can be changed, and that there is a risk of offending the Iranians, and those opposing the agreement in Iran could capitalise on this. The balance is “extremely complex”, one source acknowledged, adding that no measure would be adopted at the Council. However, certain other sources were confident in the possibility of adoption before the fateful date of 12 May. According to Europa Press, Italy opposes the sanctions. Spain, Austria and Sweden are believed to have misgivings, but would not block adoption if Italy gave its agreement, according to a source who gave Europa Press an interview.
The Council will also discuss Russia (see article). Although the country is often indirectly discussed over its involvement in various crises, this will be the first time since March 2016 that it has been a point of discussion itself. The debate will focus on recent events, particularly the Skripal case, as well as EU-Russia relations as a whole. The EU has agreed on five areas for action concerning Russia: requiring the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, strengthening ties with the Eastern partners and Central Asian countries, reinforcing the EU’s resilience to Russian threats, selective dialogue with Moscow on certain international matters and supporting Russian civil society, and promoting inter-personal contact. “We need to make sure that the five principles are applied by everyone in a balanced and exhaustive manner. What we hope to avoid is everybody pursuing their own policy”, a European source said.
Over lunch, the ministers will discuss the Eastern Balkans ahead of the summit of Sofia of 17 May. The heads of diplomacy are expected to stress the need to reinforce cooperation on security matters in the region. Enlargement, which is a subject that falls to the European affairs ministers, will be discussed at the June ‘General Affairs’ Council.
The future of the external financing instruments will be discussed in an initial exchange of views, with the Commission’s proposal on the forthcoming multiannual financial framework expected for 2 May. Over 2014-2020, €66 billion was allocated to external actions. The European Development Fund is not part of the EU budget.
The ministers are expected to touch upon the situations in Gaza and Venezuela. They will adopt without discussion conclusions on South Sudan, acts of cyber-piracy and disarmament and non-proliferation in the chemical field. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Mathieu Solal, with Mathieu Bion)