Brussels, 08/12/2011 (Agence Europe) - Will Romania and Bulgaria finally know their position over Schengen at the heads of state and government summit? They have been awaiting the go-ahead from their partners since March 2011. Although the subject will indeed be discussed on Friday (the president of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, confirmed the subject in his letter of invitation) optimism was not really the overwhelming mood on the eve of this meeting. Several pundits have expressed doubts about a decision being taken at the summit and consider that at this stage it is unlikely that the Netherlands, the final country maintaining its veto on the question, will decide to lift its veto.
In terms of timing, the Polish Presidency had already hoped to have the Netherlands on side and supporting its compromise before the summit took place. This would have meant support at a ministerial level for its two phase free movement accession project, which would firstly consist of opening up airspace and maritime borders, then, secondly, terrestrial borders, possibly in July. However, no positive shift in this direction has occurred and on Friday the dossier “will definitely be in the hands of President Van Rompuy”, who will subsequently have to muster up all his skills of political persuasion to get the Netherlands to shift, explained one source. According to this source, we should avoid getting wrapped up in too much detail before Friday's decision: “it will not involve looking at new dates or specific accession modes but rather, seeing whether the Netherlands will accept these two countries into the Schengen area”.
As opposed to Finland, which has demonstrated greater flexibility with regard to its position over the past few weeks due to a few conditions being introduced, the Netherlands has so far adopted a very tough line on Bulgaria and Romania's accession. It considers that their progress against corruption and in the field of legal reforms has not been sufficient. It also wants a decision (which requires unanimity from all countries in the area) not to be made on these two candidacies before July 2012, when the European Commission publishes a new report on the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism.
One source from a large member state indicated a few days ago that “obviously, nothing is in the bag yet… the most recent indications that we've had suggest that the Netherlands will not change its mind”. Another source indicated that the outcome on this issue would also depend on how forcefully Sofia and Bucharest defend their positions at Friday's meeting. “If they beg their partners for an outcome and absolutely call for a solution”… “then all eyes will be trained on the Netherlands” and a commitment could possibly be made on Friday. Nevertheless, Bulgaria and Romania may also be overcome somewhat by the flagship subject at this EU27 meeting, reform of the Treaty and the economic future of the EU. They therefore may decide to focus essentially on “the future of their respective banking systems, for an example”. (SP/transl.fl)