Brussels, 09/06/2011 (Agence Europe) - Almost one third of the European population will be aged 65 or more by 2060 and nearly one in eight will be over 80. By that same year, the total population of the 27 member states will have fallen back to 517 million, after peaking at 526 million around 2040. In 2010, the population stood at 501 million. The forecasts, published on Wednesday 8 June by Eurostat, the European statistical office, highlight the ageing of the EU population and its decrease in size by 2060. However, the figures conceal wide differences between member states, particularly with regard to demographic growth.
Ageing: across the EU as a whole, the percentage of over 65s will increase from 17.4% in 2010 to 29.5% by 2060, and for over 80s the percentage will increase from 4.6% to 12% over the same period. Significant differences appear among member states, with the number of over 65s being lower than the EU average in Ireland (22%), the United Kingdom (24.5%), Belgium and Denmark (25%) and France (26.6%) but above the average in Germany (32.5%), Slovakia (33.5%), Romania (34.8%) and Latvia (34.7%). The percentage of over 80s will be below the EU average in Ireland (9%), Cyprus (9.2%), the United Kingdom (9.3%) and France (11%) but will be higher than the average in Spain (14.2%), Italy (14.1%) and Germany (13.5%).
This disparity in situation has to be put in the context of demographic growth over the same period. Between 2010 and 2060, population is expected to rise significantly in Ireland (+41%), the United Kingdom (+27%), Belgium (+24%) and Sweden (+23%). The steepest declines will be in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania (-20%), Romania and Germany (each -19%). By 2060, the countries with the largest populations will be the United Kingdom (79 million), France (74 million), Germany (66 million), Italy (65 million) and Spain (52 million).
These data show an overall ageing of the population of the EU27 throughout the period to 2060 and a growing number of people living into ripe old age. They impact significantly on the old age dependency ratio (that is, the population aged 65 and over divided by the population aged 15 to 64), which is projected to increase from 26% in 2010 to 53% in 2060. In other words, there would be only two persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or over in 2060, compared with four persons to one in 2010. This ratio, which is hugely important for its impact on retirement and pensions systems, will range from over 60% or more in Bulgaria, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia to 45% or less in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. The dependency ratio has been on the rise since 1960 when it stood at between 10% and 19% depending on the country. (F.G./transl.rt)