First superficial reactions. The initial reactions from the EU institutions to the result of the referendum in Turkey on whether to approve revision of the national constitution, were necessarily superficial and involved satisfaction and congratulations for prospects of making progress in democracy and freedom, as well as optimism regarding the relaunch of accession negotiations. Commissioner Stefan Füle spoke explicitly about progress being made towards respect for the accession conditions and Hélène Flautre MEP highlighted Turkey's ability to make progress in this direction.
Just before this referendum, however, EU ministers for foreign affairs confirmed the divergences between them, with some affirming support for accession, whilst others reaffirmed their preference for a privileged partnership (see our publication yesterday). British and Finnish ministers requested that the Turkish minister for foreign affairs participate in the work of the EU on external relations, without waiting for accession to be achieved. Although reciprocal consultation procedures can obviously be improved and strengthened, the idea of Turkey taking part in Community work, whilst keeping its total freedom of action is unrealistic and rather barmy, just at a time when the EU is doing its best to speak with a single voice and now has a high representative and common diplomatic service to this end. Enhanced strategic dialogue can be envisaged, according to Ms Ashton, but any participation in Community decisions is unthinkable outside accession. The Turkish foreign minister himself excluded the possibility of a genuine strategic partnership between his country and the EU if accession does not materialise.
Fundamental questions still persist. We can see that the referendum result has, overall, been well received but the situation has not changed: the fundamental questions still remain unanswered. They involve, in particular, the problem of Cyprus, irregularities in the application of the customs union by Turkey, increasing autonomy of Turkish foreign policy (completely understandable from Ankara's point of view but which sometimes goes in a very different direction from that of Europe). From a European point of view, the shrouded issue (in the sense that no one dares mention it) of what the repercussions will be if Turkey joins the EU on European Union cohesion and agricultural policy can also be added. These are, nevertheless, fundamental questions due to their potential impact on the future of European construction.
Are the warmest supporters of Turkish accession, the leader of whom is the current British prime minister, David Cameron, supporting maximum EU enlargement as an instrument to definitively bury the project of a strongly integrated Europe and the “Community method”?
The partisans of this kind of dreamed up Europe do not appear aware of what a diluting effect the accession of a country that is not geographically European (apart from a tiny part of its territory) would have, whose foreign policy is evolving in accordance with its Asian and global ambitions.
Essential elements. Any assessment of the referendum should take into account the following essential factors:
1. The internal political transformation. Changes to the balance of power between the civilian and military interests, as well as between the executive and legal hierarchy, constitute a real revolution. The leaders of the 1982 coup d'état may have to face trial but this would not have any real consequences because some of the military implicated in this event have died, and the others benefit from immunity (the 30 year immunity deadline will soon be expiring) but the symbolic value is all too obvious. The way in which the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Council of Judges are made up will be changed by significantly increasing the number of members designated by the Parliament and government. These are, moreover, the bodies that notably rejected authorisation for wearing the veil in universities and ruled against certain members of the prime minister's political party and imposed a heavy financial sanction on him. The party in opposition has described this development as a “civilian coup d'état”.
These are domestic issues on which the EU has no right to intervene. Their effect on accession negotiations will need to be looked at but taking any positions on these questions appears at the very least, premature.
2. The Kurdish problem. The referendum does not cover minority rights or other similar questions because these were not part of its remit. This problem, however, still remains, together with all the difficulties and repercussions related to it.
3. Foreign policy. Turkey is increasingly developing an autonomous, audacious and effective foreign policy, which has increased its international prestige and strength on the world stage. Nonetheless, its orientations on several aspects do not correspond to those propounded within EU foreign policy. This is both normal and logical but should not be ignored. This column will return to this question tomorrow. (F.R./transl.fl)