Avoiding exaggeration. I sometimes get the feeling that when it comes to Russia we always exaggerate matters. Perhaps it is the sheer size of the country which brings about this effect. The latest example was provided by reactions to last month's gas agreement between Gazprom and Sonatrach. I read titles which spoke with excessive alarmism: the EU is surrounded; Russia-Algeria axis traps Europe; the gas OPEC is born. The events were certainly important, since Gazprom and Sonatrach hold 40% of the European gas market, a percentage which could increase (in the case of Italy it is already more than 60% and there was talk of “Italy caught in a stranglehold”). However, the signing last month of a memorandum of understanding between Russia and Algeria was no surprise; it was preceded by long negotiations in which Vladimir Putin himself participated on several occasions. It is not Russia's fault if European energy policy is progressing slowly, or if the fight against wastage is not sufficiently effective or the preparation of alternative sources has not yet got up to speed: rather than just being a threat, the Russia-Algeria alliance could be the spur needed to give added impetus to these actions.
Overall balance. The energy issue is a key one, but it merely one example. My overall impression is that each actor involved in EU-Russia relations sees only the aspect it is most concerned with. For some, this means the progress made in respecting human rights; others see only the energy aspect; for others, the opening up of borders to exports and the possibility of activities on the Russian market are the real priority. In reality, every one of these elements is essential and we could add others, such as more active participation on the part of Russia in global environmental or anti-terrorism efforts. Political pressure in terms of democracy, liberty and human rights is a good thing, and we can only welcome the vigilance of certain MEPs and specialist international organisations on that front; nonetheless, it is a gradual battle which will be achieved only with time and fluctuations, with periods of progress and hiatuses, and respect for all of the EU's parameters cannot be a prerequisite for an overall deepening of economic and political relations. The only objective which, in my view, should not be maintained is the free-trade area, whatever terminology is used for it; even the conditions for Russian accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) should be examined closely. There cannot be fair free-trade without certain basic rules in common: product safety, food standards, respect for intellectual property, etc. The interests of large-scale retail should not be the only criterion.
The “Northern Dimension”, a project in development. If we leave to one side the demagogical objectives of the free-trade area, which is slipped in at will out of sheer intellectual laziness, the general negotiation position proposed by the Commission in July (see in particular our bulletin 9224) is an appropriate basis for future negotiations; cooperation could even be extended to transport and other areas. It is fortunate that the Council is currently under the Presidency of Finland, the country which, for obvious geographical and historical reasons, is most directly concerned with relations with Russia. The Finnish Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen has decided to invite Vladimir Putin to the informal European Summit on 20 October, which will in large part be devoted to the issue of energy, and he will chair the EU/Russia Summit in November which should give decisive impetus to opening negotiations on the new strategic partnership agreement which is intended to replace, and extend the ambitions of, the current partnership and cooperation agreement. To bilateral relations will be added the “Northern Dimension” initiative, in which Norway and Iceland will participate alongside the EU and Russia, with the USA, Canada and several international bodies as observers. Russia seems inclined to strengthen its presence, on the condition that its decision-making powers will be in line with the other participants. In addition to general cooperation and consultation activities, the Northern Dimension sponsors operational projects of joint interest such as the treatment of nuclear waste at the Gremikha Russian naval base, or the construction of a purification plant in St. Petersburg.
A general intensification of efforts in the various areas mentioned is therefore expected in the next two months; I will come back to it at the time. The gas/energy aspect warrants more immediate and specific comment; that I will return to tomorrow.
(F.R.)