Avoiding break-up. Warnings that the Prodi Commission might find itself gradually breaking up before its mandate expires (at the end of October) have multiplied in intensity, and they should be taken seriously when they come from people who aren't looking for publicity, and who know what they're talking about, having been in the Commission. I am referring to statements by Peter Sutherland, who talked of "a sense of a disintegrating Commission", and warned of the dangers of this (see our bulletin of 21 April, page 7). In this column of 6 April, I stressed the positive effects of former Commissioners' entering national governments: the Commission's prestige is boosted and Europe gains from this, as it is clear that the French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier will fight for the adoption of the European Constitution and of the new European cohesion policy, and that the Spanish Economy and Finance Ministe,r Pedro Solbes, will put his knowledge of the Stability Pact to good use.
A genuine risk… These comments remain valuable, but this jumping-ship should stay within certain limits. If too many Commissioners leave the boat before it docks, their countries of origin and Europe in general will win out in almost all cases, but the Commission's last months could be incredibly difficult. Reader, you read the papers at least as much as I, and you know how it is: aside from those who have already left or who are getting ready to do so (Erkki Liikanen has added his name to the list), President Prodi is criticised for getting more involved in Italian politics by the day, Vice-President Loyola de Palacio, Philippe Busquin and Viviane Reding for their forthcoming electoral campaign to become MEPs, and others for having one eye on their future jobs (or those they aspire to). Some of the Commissioners from the new Member States, such as Peter Balazs or Siim Kallas (who were to team up with Michel Barnier and Pedro Solbes respectively) will be working with Commissioners newer to the job than they are.
...but which can be got round. The risk that the current Commission could be emptied from the inside is a real one, but is not inevitable. At this difficult period (for internal reasons linked to the uneasy start economic growth has made, and external ones to do with the situation in Iraq and the Middle East), the Commission is still running on all cylinders. It has just taken position on Croatia's accession application, and, more significantly, has just spoken out on the dangers of disindustrialisation and delocalisation of industrial activities, and on the role of competition policy in improving the competitiveness of the Union. These documents, both of which have been summarised in our bulletin and to which I will return next week, answer the European Council's specific requests. On other subjects of vital economic importance, the Prodi Commission will not take any more initiatives: I'm thinking of the revision of the Stability Pact and the possibility of cross-cutting European rules on services of general interest (SGIs). These are controversial subjects on which neither the Parliament nor the Council have a clearly defined position, and which will go some way towards determining Europe's future economy; it will be up to the next Commission to take position. On other fundamental dossiers, however, the Commission has already taken position, and has sent bold guidelines to the other institutions: the funding of European policies up to 2013 and the new regional and cohesion policy. For the next months, the main thing is that the Commission can:
a) Continue to manage the Union's life and functioning. All indications show that it is doing so correctly and effectively on internal- decisions on competition and single market, residual reforms of the agricultural policy, etc- and on external matters (negotiations with Mercosur and regional groups of the ACP countries, continuing negotiations at the WTO, etc);
b) Concluding the fundamental missions it was entrusted with, the most important of which is the opinion it will return in October on the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey. This is a subject which divides the European Parliament and the political powers that be in several Member States, and the Commission's opinion will probably determine the European Council's decision on this.
Criticising the Commission and ascribing to it responsibilities which it does not have should not be used to hide one's own shortcomings. This goes for the Member States, whose job is to make sure that the Constitution is approved, and for various factions of the Parliament, whose attempts to scupper the Commission look more like attempts to de-legitimise the Union before public opinion and election tactics than a justified political act. (F.R.)