The leaders of the Allied countries will meet in Ankara on Wednesday 8 July for a three-hour plenary session, following a dinner on Tuesday 7 July, attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the leaders of partner countries from the Asia-Pacific region (South Korea, Japan, Australia and New Zealand).
“The key issues at this summit are that Europeans are taking matters into their own hands, the Allies support Ukraine and Europeans and the United States are converging once again”, an Élysée source summed up.
The Allies are expected to review the commitments made last year at the Hague Summit regarding defence spending. On Monday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said he was expecting “nations to present clear, concrete and credible plans to meet the 5% target”. He emphasised that the results already achieved in one year were “impressive”, with Europeans and Canadians already investing around 4% of their GDP in defence and security, according to him. A senior NATO official explained that the 4% figure corresponds to 2.53% in defence expenditure and 1.4% in defence-related expenditure.
“Last year, the European Allies and Canada spent nearly 20% more on core defence than they had the year before. Looking at 2025 and 2026 combined, that’s $258 billion in extra investment. And that trend continues”, Mr Rutte explained. Spending is said to have reached $600 billion in 2025, and nine countries are reportedly already at 5%. “In 2025, non-US Allied spending will have increased by $139 billion”, explained an Élysée source.
The US ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker, said “we expect all Allies to demonstrate meaningful upward trajectories, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in defence spending that results in a fair burden sharing”.
Beyond spending, the focus is on investment in the struggling transatlantic defence industry (see EUROPE 13904/3). “Putting the cash to work. From defence plans to drones, from money to missiles and interceptors. This means ensuring innovation is front and centre, overcoming fragmented national defence industries and cutting red tape”, Mark Rutte summed up.
“Accelerating the development of the defence industry and innovation on both sides of the Atlantic is crucial for implementing the 5% target (for defence spending by 2035). That requires rapid deployment of traditional defence systems and innovative unconventional systems”, Mr Whitaker said. He added that a “real effort” is essential to harmonise the entire sector, make it more efficient and increase production in key areas, notably air defence, deep precision strikes and unmanned systems.
“We will therefore continue to work towards increased coproduction, more joint ventures, seeking opportunities and removing obstacles, whether on the EU side, the United States side or elsewhere”, the US ambassador added, denouncing the “protectionist rhetoric often present in European defence initiatives, which would exclude Allies, not only the United States, but also all non-EU Allies, including Türkiye”.
“The ability to produce at scale has become an extremely important component of the ability to deter the adversary”, an Élysée source said, adding that it was necessary to strengthen the Alliance’s vitality, its capacity for mass production and its ability to produce at low cost. Unlike Mr Whitaker, this source emphasised European preference.
The Allies are also expected to discuss NATO 3.0, with a stronger European commitment to the conventional defence of European territory in response to a reduced American commitment. The latter are currently conducting a review of their presence in Europe (see EUROPE 13891/5). “The objective is clear: to continue transferring the burden of Europe’s conventional defence to our NATO Allies. […] The United States remains fully committed, but we have global responsibilities and we therefore expect our Allies to join us, share our commitment and strengthen the conventional defence of the European continent”, Mr Whitaker said.
“We now know much more precisely what the Americans can provide and the Europeans are already stepping up”, Mark Rutte explained.
“We will need to consider, with all the European Allies, a new model for the Alliance, and specifically a new capability model, obviously based on the thinking underpinning the NATO Defence Planning Process, meaning NATO’s capability plan, which itself corresponds to the implementation of a military defence plan for NATO’s European area”, added an Élysée source.
The Allies are also expected to reaffirm their support for Ukraine. The declaration they are expected to adopt highlights financial support from the Allies - excluding the United States - of €70 billion in 2026 and the same amount in 2027. Last week, Italy blocked adoption of the text, not wanting a commitment for 2027, but an agreement was finally reached last Friday. The €70 billion represents €40 billion in bilateral commitments – the same amount as that announced at the Vilnius Summit in 2023 - and €30 billion for 2026 from the military component of the EU’s €90 billion loan for 2026/2027. The PURL programme has already been allocated more than €6 billion for advanced American-made systems, including Patriot and Pac-3 air defence missiles.
As regards Ukraine’s accession to NATO, as was the case last year, the “irreversible path to NATO” agreed upon at the Washington summit in 2024 is not expected to be emphasised in the joint declaration that the leaders are expected to adopt. The leaders’ declaration, which refers to Article 5, should reiterate, as it did last year in The Hague, that Russia is a “long-term threat [... to] Euro-Atlantic security”.
Beyond the formal discussions, the summit is expected to be an opportunity for the Allies to try to reconcile with US President Donald Trump, who is offended that they aren’t participating with the Americans in the operation against Iran, with some even refusing the use of their bases by the US military.
Moreover, while the next summit was scheduled to take place in Albania next year, the declaration only mentions that the leaders intend to meet again, without specifying the location or date. Some leaders are reportedly questioning the need to meet every year. Others are questioning the choice of Albania, which last year had not yet reached 2% of GDP in defence spending. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)