For the EU, “geopolitical concerns coincide with a growing dependence on U.S. LNG” (liquefied natural gas), according to the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) in a report published on Thursday 23 April.
Imports of LNG from the United States, which have soared by an “impressive” 45% in one year thanks to the drop in European purchases of Russian gas, now account for 30% of the EU’s total gas imports and almost two-thirds of its LNG imports.
This report, which analyses gas market trends over the past winter (October 2025 to March 2026), also looks ahead to the coming months in the context of the disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East. ACER is particularly concerned about the scenario of an extended shutdown of production in Qatar, from which the EU used to import 7% of its LNG, to the year 2026.
Overall, the conflict could “cut 20% of the global LNG exports” and lead to “a global LNG supply shortfall of 26 bcm”, warns the European agency. Forced to increase use of spot LNG markets, Europe could then face competition with Asia for flexible LNG cargoes which could drive up prices, it warns.
However, at current levels of EU LNG imports, and with demand similar to that in 2025, member countries could manage to fill their gas stocks to 80% ahead of next winter, according to the report.
In its ‘AccelerateEU’ plan, unveiled on Wednesday, the European Commission stressed the need to coordinate the gas supply strategies of the EU27 (see EUROPE 13854/1)
See the ACER report: https://aeur.eu/f/lnv (Original version in French by Clément Solal)