At the European Council meeting on 19 March, European leaders are expected to remind their Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, that a commitment made must be honoured.
While at the December Summit (see EUROPE 13776/1), the Hungarian Prime Minister agreed to the €90 billion loan - a loan in which his country will not participate - he is now blocking the decision to amend the Multiannual Financial Framework which is necessary to implement the loan.
“In December, we took a political decision at European Council level. Now it’s time to make it happen”, stressed the Cypriot President, Nikos Christodoulides, at an EPC conference on Wednesday. “I don’t want to envisage a scenario where the European Union takes a decision at the level of the 27 leaders, and that this political decision is not implemented”, he added, explaining that he was in contact with Hungary and hoping for a positive outcome by the time of the summit.
But other sources were more pessimistic on the same day. “Orbán, who is in the middle of a re-election campaign, will not change course, but (this Thursday) will be a very difficult day for him, because everyone has had enough: we had a decision in December without Hungary, and now he is coming with an additional problem, the oil pipeline”, summed up one European diplomat.
The Hungarian Prime Minister has linked the release of the loan to the return of oil supplies to his country via the Druzbha pipeline, damaged by Russia. “No oil deliveries? No money. It’s as simple as that”, he reiterated on 17 March. While the pipeline should be repaired in the next few weeks and the European Commission’s mission of experts has arrived on site (see EUROPE 13830/13), time is running out for the loan, the first instalment having initially been scheduled for April.
In their conclusions, the 26 EU leaders (without Hungary) are expected to welcome the adoption of the loan by the co-legislators and “look forward to the first disbursement to Ukraine by early April”. They are also expected to call for greater cooperation with third countries to help bridge the remaining €30 billion deficit in Ukraine’s finances.
In addition to the loan, the heads of state or government should once again reiterate their support for Ukraine, including military support, and their desire to increase pressure on Russia. In this context, they will reportedly hope for the rapid adoption of the twentieth set of sanctions, blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, again because of Druzhba.
Stressing the potential threat to the EU’s internal security posed by Russian ex-combatants, the European Council is also expected to invite the Commission to provide it with an assessment of possible ways of addressing this issue, “without prejudice to Member States’ competences in this domain”.
Link to the latest draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/l8a (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with the editorial staff)