The European foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels on Thursday 29 January, will discuss the situation in Iran, where, according to NGOs, more than 6,000 peaceful demonstrators have been killed.
The ministers are expected to adopt sanctions against 13 individuals involved in repression, two individuals involved in internet censorship and six entities. Four individuals and six entities will also be sanctioned under the regime of measures linked to Iran’s military support for Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
The EU Council is also expected to discuss the inclusion of the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the EU’s list of terrorist organisations. A “very sensitive” debate, according to one European diplomat. For this diplomat, it is not often that a state organisation is described as terrorist, which explains the great sensitivity of the subject. Although Paris had previously appeared reluctant to support such a listing, Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced on Wednesday evening that “France will support the inclusion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the European list of terrorist organisations”.
Earlier in the day, a European source had announced that four Member States, including France, had reservations about the listing. These states questioned the effectiveness of such a listing. They highlighted: - the fact that the IRGC is already sanctioned by the EU and that a listing would have no real impact; - the risks to channels of communication with the regime; - and the possible consequences for European citizens detained in the country.
A senior diplomat explained that there had been “some change within the Council, things are moving forward, the group of those reluctant to act is shrinking”. However, this diplomat expressed doubts about a possible decision at Thursday’s EU Council meeting. Although such a listing requires unanimity, one source believed that if the largest Member States gave their approval, it should be possible to secure the necessary consensus. On Tuesday, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani publicly expressed his willingness to sanction the Revolutionary Guards because of the “losses suffered by the civilian population during the demonstrations”, as did his Luxembourg counterpart, Xavier Bettel. Germany, the Netherlands and Spain are also said to support the listing.
The countries in favour of listing also emphasised the symbolic value of such an act. “This is an important political signal, including with regard to Iran. This is support for a significant part of the Iranian diaspora, who have been calling for it for a long time. It is a sign of support for the courageous Iranians who are opposing a murderous regime, and proof that the EU is aware of this and is acting within the framework of the instruments at its disposal”, explained this senior diplomat.
On Tuesday, Iran warned of “destructive consequences” if the Revolutionary Guard Corps were classified as a terrorist organisation by the EU.
In addition to Iran, the EU Council will discuss the Middle East and the implementation of phase two of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, including humanitarian aid. The Rafah crossing, monitored by the EU’s CSDP mission EUBAM Rafah, could reopen to people in both directions this Thursday. The extension of the EUPOLCOPPS mission to train Palestinian police officers in Gaza, in Jordan and/or Egypt, could also be discussed.
The security situation in Syria, including the camps hosting Daesh fighters, is also on the ministers’ agenda. According to one source, the Europeans could discuss ways of helping to secure the camps so that there are no escapes. The ministers are due to come back on Syria at their February EU Council meeting.
Ukraine. After their traditional video meeting with their Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sybiha, the ministers will discuss the latest events in Ukraine.
While efforts to reach a peace agreement continue, Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure continue unabated. The EU Council is expected to discuss military support and security guarantees that the EU could provide in the event of a peace agreement, as well as ways of strengthening international support for the country’s energy needs.
In a letter dated 19 January, the Association of Ukrainian Cities called on the European Committee of the Regions to ask its members to provide Ukrainian local authorities with material support to maintain essential services, including generators, cogeneration plants and energy storage systems.
The EU Council could discuss the EU’s €90 billion loan to Ukraine, including the type of equipment that Kyiv could buy with these funds. European preference is once again being emphasised by some, while others say that Ukraine should be free to buy the equipment it needs, which potentially means from third countries.
The ministers are also expected to consider the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, proposing to adopt it on the anniversary of the invasion on 24 February. Discussions on this package could begin in the next few days.
Pending this package, the EU Council could adopt sanctions against six individuals or entities linked to Russia's hybrid attacks.
Africa. At the request of several Member States, the Council will discuss the Great Lakes Region. Despite the agreements signed in December under the auspices of Donald Trump, fighting continues in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the risk of the conflict becoming regionalised cannot be ruled out. The ministers are expected to discuss the situation from a humanitarian point of view, but also the political levers and diplomatic tools that could be used to improve the situation.
The EU Council will also adopt sanctions against seven individuals responsible for activities destabilising Sudan and hindering its political transition.
Other topics. Over lunch, the ministers will meet the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk. They will also adopt conclusions on the EU’s priorities in UN human rights forums.
Ahead of the EU Council, the ministers will meet for an informal discussion on “the foreign policy outlook for 2026”. According to sources, transatlantic relations could be mentioned.
The EU Council will be followed by an EU-Morocco Association Council, which will provide an opportunity to take stock of relations between the two parties. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)