Economic growth can go hand in hand with a reduction in CO2 emissions, according to a working paper published by the European think tank Bruegel on Monday 8 September.
By analysing 191 countries between 1989 and 2022, the authors of the publication validate the hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve, according to which economic development, beyond a certain stage, can contribute to the ecological transition rather than simply being a factor in pollution.
Emissions increase with per capita income up to an average threshold of $25,000, before decreasing.
In advanced economies, this point is reached later ($35,000 to $50,000), while in a number of emerging countries it is reached as early as $5,000 to $18,000. As a result, while per capita emissions in rich countries are now falling despite growth, major emerging economies such as China and India are still on the upward slope of the curve.
The study also shows that climate policies are increasingly favouring the decoupling of growth and emissions.
With a carbon tax of at least $6 per tonne of CO2 or ETS price of $5.5/tCO2, the dependence of emissions on per capita economic growth is reduced by around 24%.
For a 1% rise in per capita income, the increase in per capita emissions falls from 1.41% to 1.07% in countries with strict regulations. This would represent a reduction of around 500,000 tonnes of CO2 in Germany, or more than 8 million tonnes in China.
The working document: https://aeur.eu/f/ibq (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)