The European Union is getting closer to achieving its 2030 climate and energy targets, according to the final assessment of National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), published by the European Commission on Wednesday 28 May.
If national measures are fully implemented, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could decrease by 54% by 2030 compared to 1990, while the target set by European climate legislation is 55%.
Following the recommendations issued in December 2023, it appears that the Member States have revised their ambitions upwards.
However, beyond this initial encouraging observation, the assessment acknowledges certain shortcomings.
If Member States follow the provisions of their NECPs, emissions from the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation, which fall outside the EU Emissions Trading System and account for almost 60% of EU emissions, are expected to decrease by around 38% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The European target is to achieve a 40% reduction by 2030.
To ensure that Member States comply with it, the European Commissioner for Climate, Wopke Hoekstra, assured a press conference that the Commission would continue “an in-depth dialogue with the Member States”.
Also, although it notes that more than two-thirds of Member States have raised their level of ambition to reach the EU’s binding target for 2030, i.e. renewable energy share of at least 42.5%, there is still a limited gap of 1.5 percentage points.
Energy efficiency. In addition, one of the main shortcomings concerns the energy efficiency target of 11.7% by 2030 (see EUROPE 13268/29), for which a gap of 31.1 Mtoe remains for final energy consumption and 47.3 Mtoe for primary energy consumption.
This translates to a European ambition level of 8.1% for final energy consumption. “We will be presenting new proposals (...), in particular the electrification plan, because (it) will be at the heart of our efforts on energy efficiency”, European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jørgensen, told journalists.
Nuclear energy. According to the NECPs, energy security is enhanced by lower gas consumption and more diversified energy sources, “including an increased role for nuclear energy, in power generation as well as heat production, in several Member States”, notes the Commission document.
It states that, on the basis of the information provided in the final NECPs, large-scale nuclear reactors could provide up to 110 GW of net electricity generation capacity in 2050, “though this comes with a considerable level of uncertainty as regards the life extension of existing reactors”.
Fossil fuels subsidies. In addition, the Commission states that around half of the Member States have partially taken on board the Commission’s recommendation to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, but acknowledges that a list of existing subsidies, concrete timetables and measures to phase them out are missing.
Just transition. The Commission considers that the plans do not provide sufficient detail on the social and employment impacts of the energy transition, particularly for vulnerable households, workers and certain regions.
“More concrete measures and a clear indication of funds to mitigate these impacts would have been an asset”, the assessment stresses and adds that there is also a lack of a sufficient analytical basis for the preparation of Social Climate Plans.
“Such a profound transformation of the economy can only succeed if we pay attention to its social dimension”, Teresa Ribera, the Commission’s Executive Vice-President for a Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, stressed to the press.
Investments. Although further work is still needed to indicate sources of funding and how private investment can be mobilised, the Commission acknowledges that Member States’ investment estimates have improved considerably compared to the draft plans.
On this point, however, the CAN Europe coalition of environmental NGOs warned in a press release that “without a credible financing strategy, even well-designed plans risk remaining on paper”.
Next steps. For the Commission, the challenge is now to transform the plans into concrete actions, as Wopke Hoekstra reminded.
Three countries - Belgium, Estonia and Poland - have not yet submitted their final plans. The Commission is calling on them to do so without delay. Slovakia’s plan, submitted on 15 April, is currently being examined.
The NECPs will be reviewed after 2030, in the context of the future reform of the Energy Union Governance Regulation.
The assessment: https://aeur.eu/f/h40 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys and Nithya Paquiry)