On the evening of Monday 20 January, the European Banking Authority (EBA) unveiled the parameters of the 2025 banking stress test that it will carry out on 64 banking groups (including 51 banks active within the banking union), the results of which will be made known in early August.
The stress test will draw comparisons over a three-year period, the solvency of the banks making up the panel in the event of an abrupt downturn in the economic situation, triggered by major geopolitical tensions. An adverse macroeconomic scenario was modelled (rising trade protectionism, exploding energy and commodity prices, disruptions to supply chains, collapse in private consumption and investment) which would see GDP in the EU fall by 6.3% cumulatively.
As a result, this adverse scenario predicts a sharp rise in unemployment (6.1% above the baseline scenario), as well as a surge in inflation (5.0% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027). The macroeconomic shock will be spread across sixteen business sectors in order to assess the performance of the banks tested according to the sectors to which they are exposed.
Further information: https://aeur.eu/f/f53 (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)