At the Mercosur summit in Montevideo (Uruguay), the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to announce the conclusion of negotiations on the EU/Mercosur trade agreement on Friday 6 December. While discussions at the highest level on the agreement are still scheduled for Friday, several sources confirmed on Thursday 5 December that it was already a done deal.
The Commission’s spokesperson on trade issues, Olof Gill, confirmed that the European side was determined to achieve just that result: “The intention is to finalise the political negotiations to conclude what would be a historic and revolutionary partnership agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur region”.
After several years of discussions, the negotiators have reached compromises on the most thorny issues: the place of the Paris Agreement on Climate, commitments to tackle deforestation, and opening up Brazilian public procurement markets.
Responding to national concerns. For the Commission, the concerns raised throughout Europe, particularly by farmers, will be taken into account. “If we manage to get to that point [the conclusion of the agreement], we will present changes compared to 2019 in some detail so that you [journalists] and our Member States can understand what’s different, what we believe is better and why we believe we can ask with some confidence for their support”, said Olof Gill.
France, strongly opposed to the agreement, described this possibility as “unacceptable”, a few hours before the announcement of the conclusion. French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated his position to Ursula von der Leyen by telephone on Thursday, according to a statement from the Élysée Palace.
Once the negotiations are over, and before the text is submitted for ratification, the Commission will have several months to try to convince the Member States that are hesitant or even clearly reluctant. These also include Ireland, Poland and Italy. Not to mention the fact that Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium are, at this stage, obliged to oppose or abstain from the Council agreement because of a vote in their national parliaments or disagreements within their governments.
At this stage, a qualified majority of countries supporting the agreement in the EU Council is not guaranteed.
European Parliament’s response. The European Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, has promised MEPs that he will come and present the text of the agreement to them once it has been concluded between the two blocs. He also assured them that the Commission would only finalise negotiations if it was confident that it could address the concerns of the European Parliament.
During an exchange on the subject on Tuesday 3 December, the members of Parliament’s Committee on International Trade (INTA) were divided (see EUROPE 13537/13).
According to the Chair of the INTA Committee, Bernd Lange (S&D, German), both elected representatives and national governments must be prepared to compromise. “Reason should prevail over emotion. I therefore urge everyone to engage in a discussion based on facts. While this deal might not meet our highest ambitions and expectations, I believe the overall consequences of a no-deal would probably far outweigh the shortcomings of an imperfect agreement”, he declared, while Ms von der Leyen was already in Montevideo.
The permanent rapporteur on EU/Mercosur relations, Gabriel Mato (EPP, Spanish), also supported the Commission’s approach: “The removal of 91% of tariffs would open unprecedented opportunities for European businesses, with benefits for key sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, and would create significant economic growth and employment”.
Opponents of the agreement also made their voices heard. Anna Cavazzini (Greens/EFA), who chairs the Parliament’s Internal Market Committee, felt that Ms von der Leyen was making a mistake in concluding the agreement in the absence of support from several ‘large’ Member States: “This will fuel instability and Euroscepticism in countries like France and Poland. It is precisely now that we need European unity rather than division”.
Once the agreement has been concluded, translated and legally verified, the European Parliament will also be asked to approve it, by a simple majority.
Pascal Canfin (Renew Europe, French), believes that the votes will probably be close, and that the Italian delegation of Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) could change the situation and tip the vote towards a negative opinion. (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)