Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky travelled to Brussels on Thursday 17 October to present his ‘victory plan’ to European leaders.
“How can we all make Russia ready for real diplomacy and force it towards real peace? That is the real question. This is what the victory plan is about”, he explained to the European leaders at the European summit. “If we start now and follow the victory plan, we can end this war no later than next year”, said Mr Zelensky. In his view, Russia will only resort to diplomacy when it realises that it cannot achieve anything by force.
According to the Ukrainian President, the plan has been well received. “Eighteen of the leaders stepped in to comment, and I also had smaller discussions with some of them. The majority of those who spoke expressed their full support for the plan”, he explained to the media, at the end of a “particularly constructive” conversation.
However, according to a European source, reactions have been more mixed, and the conclusions adopted by the European Council make no mention of this victory plan. “Some Member States really welcomed it very strongly (...) Two Member States clearly said that this shouldn’t be the way to go”, the source explained.
Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said that some leaders around the table were less convinced by the security aspect of the plan.
When asked about the plan, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave her support, while pointing out that it was not up to her to judge Ukraine’s membership of NATO. “If we are serious - and we are - about the fact that Ukraine needs to be strengthened - because strengthening Ukraine means strengthening ourselves - then this plan has the merit of clearly putting on the table the necessities, the equipment and the financing that are needed quickly”, added the President of the European Council, Charles Michel.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was more cautious. “It made no sense to discuss all the details of the victory plan. It’s important that we take a close look at it”, he added.
A five-point plan. Mr Zelensky’s victory plan is based on five points, the first of which is an invitation to join NATO. According to the President, “an immediate invitation to join NATO could be decisive”. “Of course, membership would come later”, he added. The Ukrainian President explained that an invitation would have “no political cost” and that it was a “strong decision that requires nothing but determination”. “The invitation would strengthen Ukraine’s diplomatic stance, which would be one of the main arguments to stop the war”, he insisted. He was supported by the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, who explained that NATO membership was the most important life insurance policy a country could have.
The Ukrainian President visited NATO, where he stressed the importance of this invitation. The new Secretary General, Mark Rutte, reiterated the Alliance’s official line: Ukraine will one day be a member. “Between now and then, we will make sure that Ukraine has everything it needs to win”, he promised.
The second and third priorities are defence. Mr Zelensky therefore once again called on the West to support his country. “We must apply pressure on Russia on the battlefield. It is realistic to maintain the line of defence on the battlefield (in Ukraine) while bringing the war back to Russia (...) We have a clear list of weapons that can make this possible”, he explained. Before going into detail: “We must equip our brigades without limitation, invest in Ukraine’s defence industrial base and secure Ukraine’s air defence as soon as possible”.
He also wants to see deterrent measures put in place, “which would force Russia to take part in peace negotiations or allow their military target to be destroyed”. Although certain countries have supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles, they do not necessarily authorise the country to use them outside its borders. However, these strikes are having an impact. Mr Zelensky explained that long-range strikes over Crimea had destroyed 23 “enemy” ships.
The situation on the ground is difficult. Mr Zelensky warned that Russia was strengthening itself to continue the war, “not to end it”, adding that China was actively supporting Moscow, which was also receiving help from Iran. He confirmed that, according to his country’s intelligence services, 10,000 North Korean soldiers had already been deployed in the occupied territories of Dombass to prepare for the front.
“This is another step in the war, and the first step towards a world war”, warned the Ukrainian President.
In its conclusions, the European Council calls for “rapid stepping up of military support and acceleration in its delivery, in particular air defence systems, ammunition and missiles”. It stresses the importance of increased support for the Ukrainian defence industry. In this context, it calls on the EU Council to rapidly finalise work on the ‘European Peace Facility’, in order to release €6.6 billion (see EUROPE 13503/7).
The economic aspect, along with critical resources, is another focus of the victory plan. It is proposed that Ukraine’s main partners conclude a special agreement on the protection of Ukraine’s essential resources, joint investments and “the orientation of the relevant economic potential towards shared growth". According to Mr Zelensky, this also involves additional sanctions against Russia. In this respect, the European Council has said that it is prepared to take additional measures to limit Russia’s ability to continue the war.
Finally, Mr Zelensky highlighted the security aspect. He proposed that European leaders support their security by replacing certain military contingents of the U.S. armed forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units, who, after the war, “have proven that they can be a force that Russian evil cannot overcome”. “But to do that, we have to win”, he said.
Call for agreement on G7 loans. In addition to the plan, the Ukrainian President has asked the Europeans to put in place, as quickly as possible, loans from the G7 countries to his country, guaranteed by the future windfall profits generated by the Bank of Russia’s frozen assets. He called for unity among leaders regarding the funds, while Hungary is blocking the decision to extend the sanctions to 36 months (see EUROPE 13500/27).
“When we are faced with very long months without military support, our domestic production of drones and electronics really helps us. We need money for this”, explained Mr Zelensky.
To see the conclusions of the European Council: https://aeur.eu/f/dy2 (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)