What could jeopardise the EU’s 2040 climate target? In a publication published on Thursday 3 October, the think tank Bruegel provides a detailed analysis of the technological, economic and social challenges the EU will have to tackle if it is to achieve a 90% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, a target proposed by the European Commission in February (see EUROPE 13344/1).
This 2040 target is part of a broader trajectory, defined by the European Climate Law of 2021, aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. It represents an intermediate step between the 55% reduction in emissions planned for 2030 and the virtual elimination of emissions by 2050.
As the policy brief points out, greenhouse gas emissions have already fallen by 33% compared with 1990, and technologies such as solar and wind power are now cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
In 2023, the European Union cut its CO2 emissions by a further 8%, with a 47% reduction in the sectors covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2005.
While, in the light of these observations and the ambitious policies already put in place, Bruegel maintains that this transition is technically feasible, thanks in particular to advances in clean technologies, four major risks nevertheless threaten these objectives, according to the think tank.
Geoeconomic instability could disrupt green technology supply chains, particularly as a result of global trade tensions.
In addition, the technological uncertainties associated with innovations that have not yet been tested on a large scale, such as carbon capture and storage, could slow progress. The report also warns about the risk that climate policies could exacerbate social inequalities if they are not accompanied by appropriate redistribution measures.
Finally, if the EU does not meet its interim commitments by 2030, the 2040 target could become less feasible.
To address these issues, Bruegel recommends strengthening cooperation within European electricity markets, closely monitoring the cost of key technologies and incorporating redistribution mechanisms to protect vulnerable households.
The EU will also need to maintain investor confidence through credible and sustainable policies.
Read the analysis: https://aeur.eu/f/dou (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)