The latest half-yearly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), published on 24 July, focuses on demand for coal, which continues to fall in Europe compared with other regions of the world. It is preceded by a first quarterly report on the gas markets, followed by a second half-yearly report on electricity, both published in mid-July.
Coal. Global demand for coal is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2024 and 2025, according to the IEA, which notes strong demand for electricity in some major economies.
By 2023, global coal consumption had reached a record level, increasing by 2.6%, due to strong growth in China and India.
However, in Europe, the fall in demand that began in the late 2000s is continuing, thanks to efforts to reduce emissions in electricity production.
Coal-fired electricity generation in the European Union is set to fall by a further 25% this year, as it has already done in 2023.
Electricity. While global demand for electricity is expected to increase by around 4% in 2024, compared with 2.5% in 2023, representing the highest annual growth rate since 2007, the EU will experience a more modest recovery, with growth forecast at 1.7%, after two consecutive years marked by the effects of the energy crisis.
The IEA also points out that energy prices in Europe remain high compared with pre-Covid-19 levels.
“This situation, combined with a moderately gloomy macroeconomic outlook, continues to weigh on certain industries and raises uncertainties about the pace of recovery in demand”, the Agency points out.
As far as renewable energies are concerned, the IEA indicates that in the EU, wind and solar photovoltaic energy production should exceed fossil energy production in 2024. Worldwide, solar photovoltaic energy alone is expected to meet around half of the growth in global electricity demand by 2025.
Gas. The quarterly report on the gas markets indicates that after the natural gas supply shock in 2022 and a gradual rebalancing in 2023, the gas markets experienced more pronounced growth in the first half of 2024. However, growth is expected to be more moderate in the second half of the year, with global gas demand set to increase by 2.5% for 2024 as a whole.
Asia accounted for around 60% of the increase in global gas demand in the first half of 2024.
The use of gas in the electricity sector grew by a more moderate 2% year-on-year, mainly due to the fall in gas-fired power generation in Europe.
As far as prices are concerned, the increase in demand in Asian markets combined with the contraction in supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tightened the global gas balance during the second quarter.
In addition, uncertainties over the supply of Russian gas to Europe via pipelines have accentuated price volatility.
Lastly, Europe and North America are expected to drive the expansion of low-emission gases (accounting for 70% of overall growth), whose supply is set to more than double between now and 2027.
Links to the reports: https://aeur.eu/f/d47 ; https://aeur.eu/f/d48 ; https://aeur.eu/f/d49 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)