The way in which Roberta Metsola’s re-election as leader of the European Parliament and the European Parliament Bureau election went off may give an indication of how the political groups likely to approve the candidacy of German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen for the presidency of the European Commission will behave on Thursday 18 July.
Unlike in previous elections, the Maltese Christian Democrat was re-elected for a further two and a half years at the head of the Chamber, obtaining 562 votes in the first round, equivalent to 90.2% of the votes cast, the highest score ever obtained by a President of the Parliament (see EUROPE 13454/1). This success is due to the fact that Ms Metsola’s work has been appreciated within the Chamber, in particular the visibility she gave the European Parliament by being the first to visit Kyiv in March 2022 after the outbreak of Russian military aggression against Ukraine. It was also made possible because only The Left Group had submitted a rival candidacy, whereas traditionally the political groups use this forum to reaffirm their political priorities.
The election, in two rounds of voting, of the Bureau of the Parliament, made up of the fourteen Vice-Presidents (see EUROPE 13454/2) and the five Quaestors (see other news), showed that the pro-European political groups - EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and Greens/EFA - can manoeuvre together to get their own candidates elected in the first round, while keeping candidates from the far-right Patriots for Europe and Europe of Sovereign Nations groups out of the European institution’s representative posts.
In the second round of voting, the conservative ECR Group succeeded in having two of its representatives elected as European Parliament vice-presidents, whereas it only held one vice-presidency during the previous legislature in the person of Latvian Roberts Zīle, who was re-elected on Tuesday. The election of Italy’s Antonella Sberna - from the Fratelli d’Italia party of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni - as European Parliament vice-president and Poland’s Kosma Złotowski from the PiS party as Quaestor shows that the ‘cordon sanitaire’ does not include conservatives, as the EPP Group had wanted.
Apart from the Christian Democrats, the pro-European groups and certain national delegations are repeating in Strasbourg that they are reserving their position for the vote (Thursday at 1pm) on the Commission Presidency until after the announcement of Ms von der Leyen’s candidacy speech (Thursday starting at 9am) and, above all, the guidelines that she will send to the political groups (Thursday at 8am). Following their discussion with Ms von der Leyen, they will have the opportunity to meet again at the end of the morning to decide on their final position.
To be elected, the European People’s Party candidate must obtain an absolute majority of 361 votes, given that the tripartite platform bringing together the Christian Democrat, Social Democrat and centre-right families has 401 MEPs. Not all delegations within the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe groups will be supporting Ms von der Leyen. We know, for example, that the French and Slovenians in the EPP Group, the Irish in Renew Europe and perhaps the French in the S&D Group will oppose a second College presided by Ms von der Leyen.
Four to Tango. Hence the discussions that Ms von der Leyen has held with the Greens/EFA (see EUROPE 13450/7), The Left (see EUROPE 13454/3) and ECR groups, in parallel with the creation of the tripartite platform, to convince MEPs from these groups to approve her candidacy.
These discussions with the outgoing Commission Presidency have always taken place on a group-by-group basis, never in a collegial manner. This did not prevent the heads of the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and Greens/EFA groups from meeting informally to divide up the top jobs within the European Parliament and to consider the broad outlines of a political programme for the next 5 years. Agence Europe witnessed this on Thursday 11 July in Brussels, at the end of the meeting of the Conference of Presidents of the political groups.
“You need four to tango at European level”, noted a parliamentary source on Wednesday 17 July.
The European Greens have never concealed their desire to be part of a stable pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of Law coalition, such as Ms von der Leyen wants to form in the European Parliament around her political programme. Since the European elections in June, the Greens/EFA have been trying to convince the tripartite platform of their ability to provide the votes needed to re-elect Ms von der Leyen, while at the same time laying down conditions relating in particular to the continuation of the European Green Deal and the unwavering fight against the extreme right. From corroborating sources, the discussions between the Greens and Ms von der Leyen’s team and her political party have been constructive.
The Greens/EFA Group will announce its final position on Thursday just before the vote. However, the election of three MEPs from the ECR Group to the Bureau of the European Parliament could cause some MEPs to hesitate. On Tuesday morning, the head of the French delegation, David Cormand, indicated that the five MEPs would not be supporting “any extreme right-wing group”, including the ECR. What Ms von der Leyen says on the issue of migration will also have a real impact on the decision of the European Greens, who are opposed to the negotiation of transversal agreements including the issue of migration with third countries, along the lines of the agreement reached with Tunisia.
The German Christian Democrat also hopes to win votes within the ECR Group. This is why the EPP Group refused to include the latter’s representatives in the ‘cordon sanitaire’ and favoured the election of three conservatives to the Parliament’s Bureau, a number identical to that of the Renew Europe Group. On Tuesday, at a meeting with the European Conservatives, Ms von der Leyen reportedly also mentioned the creation of a European commissioner’s portfolio tasked with simplifying the lives of SMEs, in particular by reducing the bureaucratic burden. This idea was first put forward by Ms Meloni and is compatible with the EPP’s desire to stimulate economic competitiveness.
The ECR Group has already indicated that it will not give any indication of how it plans to vote, leaving its national delegations to choose their position according to what Ms von der Leyen has to say. We already know that the Czechs will vote for the candidate, while the Poles, Romanians and French will oppose her.
‘Spitzenkandidaten’. Lastly, the election of Ms von der Leyen as the EPP party’s leading candidate would revitalise the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process, which was undermined in 2019 by French President Emmanuel Macron, when he rejected the candidacy of Germany’s Manfred Weber.
Unlike 5 years ago, the outgoing President of the Commission “campaigned and was visible”, noted this parliamentary source.
The revitalisation of the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process would therefore constitute an additional argument likely to convince certain MEPs from pro-European political groups to vote in favour of Ms von der Leyen, despite a lack of enthusiasm and because of the absence of a credible alternative. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)