Ukraine’s entry into the European Union would lead to an upheaval in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), according to a study published on Thursday 27 June by the Paris-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).
As IDDRI writes, it is “unlikely that enlargement can take place in the long term without substantial reform of this policy”. Given the decline in the CAP budget in recent years, unless it is increased, reform is needed to make the Common Agricultural Policy sufficiently effective.
Thanks to its huge utilised agricultural area (UAA), which determines the level of aid, Ukraine would be the biggest beneficiary of the CAP if policy remained unchanged, with between €10 and €12 billion a year. A reform of the CAP aid allocation system, in particular the European Agricultural Guarantee Fund (EAGF), would make it possible to minimise the fiscal impact of enlargement to include Ukraine, according to the researchers. And to add that: “Reforming the EAGF distribution key would be a major opportunity to fundamentally rethink the way in which this policy is used to meet environmental and social objectives, in addition to economic objectives for the agricultural sector”.
As well as reforming the CAP, Ukraine’s accession would alter the political balance within the Union. As the fifth most populous country in the EU, Ukraine would have significant voting power in the EU Council. IDDRI believes that such a situation would strengthen the French and German desire to reform the EU Council’s voting system. What’s more, with agriculture occupying a prominent place on Kyiv’s agenda, it would also gain in importance on the European agenda.
Nevertheless, according to the institute’s experts, Ukraine’s entry into the EU also represents advantages for the latter, as it reinforces its status as a standard-setting power and its autonomy in terms of protection. What’s more, the association process has been underway since 2014, and recent events have only brought the foreseeable upheavals closer, particularly in terms of competition within the internal agricultural market.
To see the IDDRI study: https://aeur.eu/f/cvj (Original version in French by Paul Charles - Intern)