On Thursday 20 June in Luxembourg, the finance ministers of the euro area countries will take stock of the economic situation in the Eurozone and the international role of the single currency, and will debate the policies needed to make industry more competitive.
To guide their discussions, the ministers will be briefed on the results of the ‘Article IV’ report that the IMF regularly prepares on the economic situation in the euro area, in the presence of the Managing Director of the international organisation, Kristalina Georgieva.
Discussions will also be based on the ECB’s recent monetary policy decisions (see EUROPE 13425/1) and the European Commission’s spring forecasts. It expects moderate growth in economic activity in 2024 before a rebound in 2025, with inflation easing and labour markets remaining robust (see EUROPE 13410/4).
On Wednesday, the EU institution will present its socio-economic policy recommendations, which the Member States will be asked to incorporate into their draft budget plans for 2025. It could announce the opening of excessive deficit procedures for some 10 countries, but may postpone the publication of its quantitative recommendations on the fiscal trajectories that these countries would have to follow.
“We expect a high level of convergence” with the IMF’s recommendations, which call for continued reform and investment and more integrated capital markets in Europe, noted a European source on Tuesday 18 June.
ECB President Christine Lagarde and Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will present an analysis of the international role of the euro. In a special report (see EUROPE 13430/13), the monetary institute points out that, according to a composite indicator, the euro is holding its position as the world’s second most important currency, despite international tensions. However, it points to the increased risk of fragmentation of international payment systems. The ECB advocates greater integration of capital markets and, externally, the development of infrastructure to facilitate cross-border payments in euros.
Finally, the Eurogroup will continue its analysis of competitiveness factors in Europe, this time focusing its discussions on industrial policies and how they can increase innovation and competition within the internal market. The question of State aid regimes will also be raised.
On the same day, the annual meeting of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro area’s permanent rescue fund, will take place in Luxembourg. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion and Émilie Vanderhulst)