Les saccageurs de l’espace
Space continues to be a mystery, even to those who explore it. How, then, can we ever hope to understand what it is really about? Reading this book, which is passionate, clear and well documented, is a good start. Raphaël Chevrier, a doctor of physics, works in the space industry (MaiaSpace) and takes us on a fascinating journey through space and time with a passion that is contagious. With flashbacks retracing the major staging posts in the “conquest” of space – an expression that says more about human vanity than space itself – but, more importantly, a factual and well-argued analysis of the threats that are building up all around planet Earth. The work comes across as an alarm call, although the author remains reasonably optimistic, as the solutions to save our spatial environment exist. It simply requires mankind to accept the need to start behaving responsibly. Is this even possible? To judge from the history and current affairs of human society, all forms of intelligence, be they human, artificial or even extraterrestrial, can come to no other conclusion than that man’s propensity for destruction is usually stronger than his desire to safeguard. But even though the looting of space that gives the book its title is on the increase, it is not too late to stop it altogether.
We do not measure it enough, but as Dr Chevrier begins by pointing out, space has become indispensable to our everyday lives: “it is because of satellites that we are able to communicate with each other from one side of the world to the other, even in the remotest areas, and that we are able to find our way, thanks to our navigation systems that mean we no longer have to rely on old paper maps. Satellites synchronise our energy networks and our banking transactions, they help us to predict meteorological phenomena and to understand the mechanisms causing global warming” (our translation throughout). And “exploratory probes are making ever greater inroads into the secrets of the Universe to which our history, that of a planet Earth that is both exceptional and ordinary, suspended in the middle of an ocean of stars, is intimately linked”.
“New Space” businesses have taken off into space, which was once regulated and reserved for State actors alone. With exponential investments, “which have risen from 1.06 billion dollars between 2000 and 2004 to 16.8 billion between 2015 and 2019”, and an emblematic troublemaker, Elon Musk, who is described by the author as “chiefly to blame for the fact that in less than a decade, space has been transformed into a playground for the expression of all excesses”. The space industry is growing at a phenomenal pace and, according to the consultancy firm McKinsey, “the space sector market has leapt from 280 to 447 billion dollars between 2010 and 2022 and could go beyond the 1000 billion mark by 2030”. A lot of this is of little service to anyone, such as businesses offering funeral services in space. Not all of them have been a great success: “in May 2023, 120 funeral urns of the company Celestis died a second time when they exploded on board a small rocket above the New Mexico desert, a few seconds after takeoff”. The tourism (charging between 200,000 and 300,000 dollars to spend three minutes in space around 100 km from Earth), film and the advertising industries have all taken to space for many other projects that are as futile as they are damaging to the environment. “Let us be quite clear about the fact that if the market justifies it, we will end up one day seeing [advertising banners on a particular orbit] passing above our heads like slow-motion shooting stars”, Chevrier warns.
“A few lines are all it takes to bring people out in a cold sweat. In the space of just four years, between May 2019 and August 2023, SpaceX (Elon Musk’s company: Ed) launched into space more than 4800 (Starlink) Internet satellites, weighing around 300 kilos each and orbiting at extremely low altitude, 550 km from the surface of the earth. This represents nearly 40% of all satellites placed into orbit since the space race began in 1957!”, the author writes, going on to stress that there are currently 7000 active satellites orbiting just above our heads. Experts predict that this number will rise to nearly 27,000 by 2030, “originating from what are known as telecommunications constellations”. The upshot is that “the majority of satellites are concentrated in an extremely narrow strip, very close to Earth”, with huge risks of collision and light pollution that hinders space observation.
“And that’s not all: on paper, SpaceX could well deploy a total of forty-two thousand low-orbit satellites. And if all operators should apply a similarly enormous number of items, near-Earth space would become highly saturated in no time. In view of this massive occupation of the terrestrial suburbs in record time, following the logic of ‘first-come, first-served’, why are the competent authorities not reacting?”, the author asks, before offering an answer: “like the very late response to the urgent question of global warming, the principal space nations are realistically struggling to bring in common rules to prevent these disasters”.
And yet the urgency is genuine. According to the European Space Agency, there are 36,000 objects of more than 10 cm in space and “the area close to Earth is packed with more than 1 million objects of more than 1 mm”. The very smallest of this tiny debris “represents danger to anything that crosses its path”, the author stresses, pointing out in particular that “space junk weighing 2 g is equivalent to a motorcycle travelling at a hundred kilometres per hour” and that “steel debris less than 1 mm in size releases the same amount of energy as a baseball travelling at 200 kilometres per hour”. However, “one would be entirely justified in doubting the capacity of the States to regulate the amount of space junk before it is too late”. “This means that the only solution is to start now cleaning up the mess that we have been making of space for decades”, Chevrier, observes, referring to the experimental mission that was entrusted by the European Space Agency in 2020 to the Swiss start-up ClearSpace to remove around 100 kilograms from the rocket Vega by 2026, using a dumptruck-style satellite. But in the meantime, the debris has already been hit by another tiny object and “there is now new space junk floating around it, making the mission even more complex than anticipated”.
The increasing number of satellites and amount of space junk, with the risks of collision or even chains of collision, is not the only problem. Equally concerning is the militarisation of space. “We must be quite clear: it is highly likely that the ideal of space at the service of international cooperation and peace between the peoples of the Earth will not hold out for long against the new geopolitical tensions our societies are experiencing”, Chevrier writes, adding that “no space power is safe from these nationalistic reflexes. Since April 2021, China has been working on its own to prepare its own space station on an orbit located between 300 and 400 km altitude (…). In late July 2022, just a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine (…), the new head of the its space agency, Yuri Borissov, announced that [Russia] would leave the ISS in 2024 and build its own orbital station”. The author goes on to recall that China destroyed one of its old weather satellites in January 2007, generating at least 4000 new pieces of space junk greater than 10 cm in size and more than 40,000 small items. Less than 10 days later, the United States responded by destroying one of its own disused spy satellites. In 2019, India became the fourth country to destroy one of its low-orbit satellites.
The picture remains incomplete without referring to the pollution generated by launches, the number of which is tracing the exponential curve of satellites placed into orbit. But contrary to general assumptions, pollution is relatively low at takeoff, thanks to the extremely short duration of the emissions. Conversely, the “114 rockets that took off in 2018 generated 225 tonnes of ‘carbon black’ – fine particles made up of carbon, produced by the incomplete combustion of fuel and the black colour of which absorbs light – in the stratosphere, where the ozone layer is located. The same amount as the 40 million aeroplanes that have taken off this year”. The most significant difference is that the particles from aircraft are ejected at altitude of 10 km, where they are very quickly dispersed by the winds, whereas articles from rockets “remain suspended for three or four years in the high atmosphere, where they tend to build up”. This means that the situation was only ever going to get worse: in 2022, no fewer than 180 rockets were launched.
Finally, the author devotes a chapter to attempts to exploit space resources, which could also be the cause of new tension and have disastrous consequences, unless primacy is given to the notions of the common good and general interest and joint rules are adopted limiting “technological and economic arrogance”.
“To avoid falling behind in this new economic war, the European agencies have decided it is their turn to get started in the busy fledgling ‘New Space’ marketplace, by means of lots of development and services contracts, in the hope of creating future champions and stimulating innovation, or even disrupting the traditional space businesses”. What are the chances of success? It is difficult to say, given the gap between the two sides of the Atlantic: “in 2023, NASA was given a budget of 25.38 billion dollars – compared to the seven billion euros earmarked for the ESA – not counting the 215 billion dollars given to the U.S. Air Force”. “So as to avoid spreading competencies and resources too thinly, Europe needs to work together”, the author stresses, going on to conclude that “staying in the space race, encouraging innovation and free competition while maintaining a narrative of responsibility in line with its values is entirely the mission of space Europe in the decades to come. We must not miss this decisive fork in the road”. (Olivier Jehin)
Raphaël Chevrier. Les saccageurs de l’espace – Débris, exploitation, militarisation : comment faire pour sauver notre bien commun (available in French only). Buchet Chastel. ISBN: 978-2-2830-3742-3. 218 pages. €19,50
Die türkische Aussenpolitik unter Präsident Erdogan
In this article, which was published in the review Südosteuropa Mitteilungen, Gülistan Gürbey (Otto-Suhr-Institut, Berlin) stresses the extent to which the neo-Ottoman foreign policy strategy of Tayyip Recep Erdogan is rooted in a quest for strategic autonomy, a mix of political and military resources, including an increased inclination to resort to military force, and a fluid alliance policy. She argues that “conflicts with the West (United States, NATO, EU) are inevitable due to [Turkey’s] own strategic objectives, its hegemonic power ambitions and its positioning within the changing regional and international power systems”.
The same edition of the German review, given over to south-eastern Europe, contains an analysis of Turkey’s role in the Balkans. In it, Ahmet Erdi Öztürk (London Metropolitan University) examines the efforts Turkey has made since Erdogan came to power to bolster its influence in the region, focusing on religion, education and investment. Particular emphasis has been laid on Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania, with the construction of a mosque in Tirana able to take 10,000 worshippers. Although this project was initiated by the Dyanet, others have been supported by the Turkish development cooperation agency, TIKA: there have been 435 projects in Albania covering the preservation of heritage, education, health, agriculture and infrastructure. However, TIKA has also carried out 845 projects in Bosnia & Herzegovina, 306 in Montenegro, 580 in Kosovo, 840 in North Macedonia and 225 in Serbia. (OJ)
Gülistan Gürbey. Die türkische Aussenpolitik unter Präsident Erdogan – Zwischen hegemonialen Machtansprüchen, geopolitischen und internen Zwängen (available in German only). Südosteuropa Mitteilungen 5/2023. ISSN: 0340-174X. 120 pages. €15,00.