The head of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, said on Thursday 18 January that “we should not expect miracles from either side” on the battlefield in Ukraine this year.
At a press conference following the meeting of the NATO Chiefs of Defence, the Admiral said that if the West had been too optimistic in 2023, “we must not be pessimistic in 2024”, although he acknowledged that it would be difficult.
Mr Bauer explained that Russia had lost more than 300,000 men - dead and wounded - and many modern capabilities, including around 100 aircraft and thousands of tanks. “Russia has more soldiers, but they are less well trained” than at the start of the invasion, he added.
According to the head of the Military Committee, Russia is in the process of rebuilding lost capabilities - but by creating old types of equipment or taking old equipment from stocks - and is hampered by sanctions. “The Russians have used a lot of missiles, they are producing them again (...) and they are receiving missiles from North Korea. We expect Russia to receive drones from Iran”, he added, pointing out that Moscow was already receiving drones and using technology from Iran.
“But Russia is doing rather well in the production of artillery and old tanks, and that worries us, because sometimes quantity becomes quality as such”, admitted the Admiral. According to Mr Bauer, despite the losses, the Russian air force’s strength remains considerable.
The Admiral stressed that all the Chiefs of Staff had renewed their willingness to help the Ukrainians. Earlier in the day, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov warned that his country was facing a “very real and urgent” shortage of ammunition. On the same day, the ‘Artillery for Ukraine’ artillery coalition was launched in Paris, bringing together 23 countries and part of the Rammstein group. This is the fifth capability coalition, after ground-to-air defence, armoured vehicles, air forces and maritime security.
According to the French Ministry of Defence, the aim of this coalition is to provide the Ukrainian armed forces in the short term with artillery capabilities for the defence of Ukrainian territory. In the long term, it also aims to build Ukraine’s future artillery through ambitious and innovative industrial partnerships. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)