In an analysis published on Wednesday 20 December, Alicia García-Herrero, senior fellow at the pro-European think tank Bruegel questions the discussions and results of the latest EU-China summit held in Beijing on 7 December (see EUROPE 13309/21), describing them as a “dialogue of the deaf” in view of the increasingly unbalanced trade relations between the two strategic partners.
Ms García-Herrero echoes the words of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, who had already described the EU/China summit in April 2022 as a “dialogue of the deaf”, particularly in view of China’s perceived permissive stance on the conflict in Ukraine.
Expectations for the December summit were high because of the very large bilateral trade deficit (€400 billion) that the EU has built up with China and of China’s growing overcapacity in an increasing number of sectors, such as steel and electric vehicles. China’s tight approach to cross-border data transfer has also become one of the main concerns for both foreign and European companies operating in Europe.
At the summit, the EU also raised the issue of the war in Ukraine, China’s potential change of status in the Taiwan Strait and human rights violations in Xinjiang and Tibet.
According to Ms García-Herrero, China’s response to the EU’s political, human rights and economic concerns was shallow.
“Rather than accepting (the European) recommendations, Premier Li Qiang (...) expressed hopes that the European side would be ‘prudent’ in introducing restrictive economic and trade policies, and the use of trade remedies”, explains the researcher, referring to the anti-subsidy investigation recently launched by the EU against electric vehicles produced in China (see EUROPE 13264/21).
Nevertheless, she stated that the very holding of the bilateral summit is a positive sign, given the low level of trust between China and the EU over the last 2 years.
“However, future dialogue is not enough to consider this summit a success as no major – or possibly even minor – agreement was reached”, said Ms García-Herrero. Some trade risks remain, and if the EU adopts de-risking measures, retaliation is possible from the Chinese side, with the most likely measures being a ban on exports of critical raw materials to produce green tech.
However, China remains dependent on the EU as its biggest trading partner (with exports worth €626 billion in 2022), a situation that explains Beijing’s concerns about the EU’s intentions to pursue risk reduction policies.
“Relations can only start improving if both sides begin to listen”, concludes Ms García-Herrero.
To see the analysis: https://aeur.eu/f/a88 (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)