On Saturday 9 and Sunday 10 September, the leaders of the G20 countries will attempt to find a common language on Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine that will not weaken the Bali Declaration of November 2022, at their summit in New Delhi, which will not be attended by the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, or the Russian President, Vladimir Putin. They will also try to show ambition in the fight against climate change and the reform of the international financial architecture.
With regard to Russian military aggression, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is hosting the summit, will not have an easy task in his search for a balance between the United States and the European Union, which are doing everything they can to isolate Russia and are supporting Ukraine militarily; certain emerging countries, such as Brazil and Indonesia, which are refusing to align themselves with the Western line; India, which abstained at a United Nations vote to call on Moscow to stop using force against Ukraine, in the spring of 2022, and Russia itself, which believes that not all current international crises can be explained through the prism of the war in Ukraine.
On his arrival in New Delhi on Friday 8 September, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, was unable to say whether the G20 would be able to adopt a final declaration, noting that some countries were prepared to weaken the language used at the previous summit.
In November 2022, in Bali, the world’s major economic powers spoke of the immense human suffering and global economic fragility caused by the war (see EUROPE 13064/1). For the Europeans, failure to reaffirm in New Delhi the principles of the United Nations Charter, such as respect for the sovereignty and integrity of states, is a red line that must not be crossed.
On the subject of Ukrainian grain, Mr Michel said it was “scandalous” that Russia had been blocking and attacking Ukrainian seaports since it withdrew from an agreement on grain signed under the aegis of the United Nations and Turkey. Recalling that the UN initiative had initially enabled 32 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain to be delivered, “in particular to developing countries”, he described Russia’s offer of one million tonnes of grain to Africa as “absolutely cynical”.
The EU supports the efforts of Turkey and the UN to bring Russia back to the table of this international agreement and, in the meantime, is continuing its work to find alternative routes, notably via ‘solidarity lanes’. These secure routes have enabled “41 million tonnes” of cereals to be transported, noted Mr Michel.
Climate. With 2023 set to be the hottest year on record, the New Delhi summit is set to reaffirm once again the urgent need to combat climate disruption, echoing recent comments by United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, who believes that “climate breakdown” has already begun.
According to a French diplomatic source, “this is a G20 at which we need to make strong commitments if we want to succeed at COP28” in Dubai at the end of 2023. She did, however, point to “major difficulties in preserving the consensus, for example on getting out of coal, on fossil fuels, on raising ambition”, with Saudi Arabia leading “a very tough campaign to assert that fossil fuels have a future in the green transition”. “We are saying the exact opposite”, she added.
For Mr Michel, “greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees”, with a view to achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
However, according to a European source, the language of the leaders will “probably not go beyond the Bali declaration”, particularly on the recommendation to move away from fossil fuels, which should still only concern coal (see EUROPE 13064/20). The G20 countries could still agree to triple the production of renewable energies, a measure that Mr Michel supports. “We must be ambitious, and that means tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030”, he recommended.
Inevitably, the question of financing measures to mitigate and combat climate change will arise. Mr Modi called on the G20 leaders to provide financial and technological assistance to developing countries to this end.
The President of the European Council noted that, for the first time, the threshold of $100 billion in annual aid from developed countries will be reached.
As for the request from developing countries to make concrete progress on a mechanism for financial compensation for loss and damage suffered as a result of climate change, Mr Michel hoped that this principle would be set out “in terms of modalities and financing”.
International financial architecture. With regard to the reform of the multilateral development banks and the Bretton Woods institutions, Mr Michel said he was in favour of “greater justice”.
“For the EU, the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals are a beacon”, which require “ambitious financing and strong partnerships between governments and the private sector” to achieve them, he stressed.
While the international community has already agreed to voluntarily redirect $100 billion of IMF Special Drawing Rights to the most vulnerable countries, “we need to do more and we need to ask others to do their part”, he said.
He added: “Sooner or later, we will need to increase the capacity of banks to support, to invest, to help, which will accelerate the progress of the Climate Fund and help support SDGs”.
Faced with the accumulating debt of many developing countries, particularly in Africa, the former Belgian Prime Minister called on “all actors to play a positive and constructive role” in working on the Common Framework for Debt Treatment – “a good tool to make progress”, beyond the progress made last June for Zambia and Ghana at the Paris Summit for a new global financial pact (see EUROPE 13208/10).
As for the long-awaited reform of the international financial architecture, he advocated a realistic two-stage approach. Firstly, assessing what can be done to maximise the leverage effect capacity of multilateral banks by using their capital. Secondly, setting a target for banks to raise up to €200 billion over time and increasing cooperation with the private sector are “potential chapters in the future debate on reform”, he said.
African Union. Even before the start of the G20 summit, Mr Michel said he was “proud” of the consensus that had emerged to grant the African Union the same status as the EU as a “member of the G20”, i.e. as an international organisation invited on a permanent basis. He recalled that the EU had immediately supported this bid, which was announced at the G7 summit in Elmau (Germany) in June 2022.
On the fringes of the G20, the EU and the African Union will hold a bilateral summit to coordinate their positions in view of a future ‘Pact for Africa’. In addition to South Africa, which is a member of the G20, the Comoros, as the rotating presidency of the AU, Nigeria, Egypt and the Chair of the AU Commission have been invited, according to a senior EU official.
Global health. Finally, Charles Michel said he expected the G20 to support the need to “prepare for the next global health emergency”. Recalling that he and WHO Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus initiated the future Global Treaty on Pandemics currently being negotiated (see EUROPE 13199/18), he said he was “confident that this G20 will express its support to ensure the success of the final negotiations in May 2024”. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion and Aminata Niang)