On Tuesday 11 July, the Allies decided to invite Ukraine to become a member of NATO when the – undefined – conditions are met.
“We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met”, underlines their declaration published at the end of the first day of the NATO summit in Vilnius.
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was not happy with this statement and reacted on Twitter. As the Allies discussed the wording to be adopted on Ukraine, the Ukrainian President expressed his disappointment. “This wording is about the invitation to become NATO member, not about Ukraine's membership. It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine's membership”, he stressed, as the Allies discussed the wording.
According to Mr Zelensky, “vague wording” concerning “conditions” have been added, “even for inviting Ukraine”. “It seems there is no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the Alliance”, he lamented.
Despite Mr Zelensky’s pressure tactics, the statement has not changed, according to Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo. The text includes elements of language desired by Ukraine, such as an invitation or the path towards future membership, which was not obvious to certain allies at the start of the negotiations.
The text also states that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO”. According to Mr De Croo, there is “little doubt about the final objective”. “When we issue an invitation, it’s not the intention to invite someone and then say that they will never be a member of the Alliance”, he explained.
No specific conditions to be met for Ukraine to be invited to join are mentioned in the text adopted – this debate will have to take place between the Allies, according to one source – but the declaration specifies that “Allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required”. Mr Stoltenberg mentioned these points to the media.
What’s more, “all the Allies agree that when there’s a war going on, it’s not the time to bring Ukraine in”, he said. If Ukraine were a member of the Alliance, it could trigger Article 5.
In addition to this commitment, the leaders decided to do away with the need for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for Ukraine, contrary to what had been announced at the Bucharest summit in 2008. This programme focuses on the interoperability and compatibility of the values of the candidate countries with the Alliance. “Ukraine’s accession process will thus move from a two-stage process to a one-stage process”, explained NATO’s Secretary General.
The Allies also adopted a “a substantial package of expanded political and practical support”, according to the declaration. In particular, they agreed to further develop the framework of the Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) into a multiannual programme for Ukraine. “The assistance provided will help rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector and transition Ukraine towards full interoperability with NATO”, the statement said, adding that the Allies would continue to fund this CAP in a “sustained and predictable way”.
According to Mr Stoltenberg, this assistance programme will also cover Ukraine’s critical needs, such as fuel, demining equipment and medical supplies.
In addition, as announced, the NATO/Ukraine Commission will become a NATO/Ukraine Council “to advance political dialogue, engagement, cooperation, and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO”, according to the statement. The EU Council will enable consultations, decision-making and joint activities, and will also serve as a consultation mechanism in the event of a crisis between NATO and Ukraine. The inaugural meeting is scheduled for this Friday, in the presence of the Ukrainian President.
Mr Zelensky also noted the support that the Allies were already providing to Ukraine. On his arrival at the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that long-range ‘Scalp’ missiles would be sent to Ukraine. The first of these have already been dispatched to the field. These missiles will strike from a distance of 250 km to match Russia’s deep strike capability, according to one source.
Germany, for its part, has announced €700 million in additional weapons, including launchers for the Patriot air defence system, armoured vehicles, Leopard 1 tanks and artillery projectiles.
In addition, the G7 and countries wishing to do so are expected to announce bilateral security commitments for Ukraine on Friday. In concrete terms, they should adopt a framework document, on the basis of which those who so wish will make commitments according to their means.
Increasing defence spending
In addition to supporting Ukraine, the Allies have committed to strengthening the Alliance by approving defence plans.
They also approved the “most comprehensive defence plans since the end of the Cold War”, according to Mr Stoltenberg, adding that the plans were designed to counter the two main threats facing the Allies: Russia and terrorism. “Under our new plans, NATO aims to have 300,000 troops at a high level of readiness, as well as substantial air and naval power” said NATO’s Secretary General.
In addition, the leaders approved a new action plan for defence production, which will “accelerate joint procurement, boost interoperability and generate investment and production capacity”, according to Mr Stoltenberg.
The leaders of the allied countries also made a “lasting commitment to invest at least 2% of our gross domestic product (GDP) in defence each year”. “More is needed urgently to sustainably meet our commitments as NATO Allies, including to fulfil longstanding major equipment requirements and the NATO Capability Targets, to resource NATO’s new defence plans and force model, as well as to contribute to NATO operations, missions and activities” the Allies said. Furthermore, in their view, “in many cases, expenditure beyond 2% of GDP will be needed in order to remedy existing shortfalls and meet the requirements across all domains arising from a more contested security order”.
There is still a long way to go to reach 2%. In 2023, only 11 Allies have reached this figure (see EUROPE 13218/2). On his arrival at the summit, Mr De Croo reiterated that his country would achieve this percentage by 2035. For her part, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas urged her allied partners to move faster to achieve this objective. “In 1988, all the allies reached 2%, because the threat was real. The threat is real today”, she warned.
The Allies have also announced that after Washington in 2024, the 2025 NATO summit will be held in the Netherlands.
See the statement: https://aeur.eu/f/80i (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)