The leaders of the allied countries will meet in Vilnius on Tuesday 11 and Wednesday 12 July for their first summit with 31 Allies.
Bringing Ukraine closer to the Alliance
At the summit, the heads of State and government are expected to strengthen cooperation with Ukraine. “We will make Ukraine even stronger and set out a vision for its future”, announced NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Friday 7 July.
The Allies are expected to agree on a multi-year assistance programme to ensure full interoperability between the Ukrainian armed forces and NATO. The Alliance will help Ukraine to strengthen its security and defence sector, in particular by setting up military hospitals, and to convert from Soviet-era equipment and standards to those of the Alliance.
NATO also wants to strengthen its political ties with Ukraine by creating the NATO-Ukraine Council. The very first council meeting will be held on Wednesday 12 July, in the presence of the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky. Unlike the NATO-Ukraine Commission, within the Council, the Allies and Ukraine will be on an equal footing. It will be a platform for consultation and decision-making in the event of a crisis, explained the Secretary General.
Finally, the leaders should reaffirm that Ukraine will become a member of NATO “and that they are united on how to bring Ukraine closer to its goal”, according to Mr Stoltenberg. The Allies’ ambition is not to repeat the 2008 Bucharest declaration, which promised Ukraine future membership, a source said.
According to a source at the Élysée Palace, if the Allies agree on this future membership, “all discussions will focus on the terms and conditions under which accession could take place”.
On Friday, discussions were still under way on the wording that might be adopted. However, the Secretary General said he was “confident” that the Allies would find a “unified way forward” on the question of membership. An Elysée source said that there was a “good level of convergence between the Allies”.
Safety guarantees would not be on the table for discussion.
Strengthening the Alliance
In addition to supporting Ukraine, the Allies are expected to take decisions to strengthen their deterrence and defence, with the adoption of three new regional defence plans to counter “the two main threats to the Alliance: Russia and terrorism”, according to Mr Stoltenberg.
One plan will cover the North, the Atlantic and the European Arctic, another the Centre, covering the Baltic region and Central Europe, and finally a plan for the South covering the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
These plans, which are classified, set out the main threats, the resources needed to defend each region and the modes of action used by the Alliance to defend itself.
“This will enable us to have general plans and, if a threat develops, we will update them”, said a source at the Élysée Palace. These plans had not been updated since 1999. A source at the Elysée Palace expressed “confident optimism” that the plans would be adopted, although Turkey could block them.
Leaders are also expected to adopt a defence production action plan to aggregate demand, boost capabilities and increase interoperability.
2% target
The heads of State or government should also make a more ambitious commitment to defence investment, “namely to invest at least 2% of gross domestic product in defence each year”. Discussions are reportedly still underway on the agreed wording. The Secretary General has repeatedly called for the 2% of GDP invested in defence not to be a ceiling, but a floor.
On Friday, NATO revealed new investment figures for the Allies. In 2023, these countries (Europe and Canada) are expected to increase their spending by 8.3%, “the highest increase recorded for decades”, according to Mr Stoltenberg. “The European Allies and Canada will therefore have invested more than an additional $450 billion since we made our defence investment commitment in 2014”, he said.
11 Allies exceeded the 2% mark this year: Poland (3.90%), the United States (3.49%), Greece (3.01%), Estonia (2.73%), Lithuania (2.54%), Finland (2.45%), Romania (2.44%), Hungary (2.43%), Latvia (2.27%), the United Kingdom (2.07%) and Slovakia (2.03%). NATO’s Secretary General has said that he expects this number to rise considerably next year. The 2014 summit agreement called for the Allies to reach 2% by 2024.
In total, the Allies have spent $1,100 billion, $743 billion of which has come from the United States.
The summit will also include a working session attended by the leaders of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and the EU.
Continuation of discussions on Sweden’s accession
Ahead of the summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson are due to meet in Vilnius on the afternoon of Monday 10 July to discuss Sweden’s membership of NATO. All the Allies, with the exception of Turkey and Hungary, have ratified this accession.
On Friday, the Turkish President announced that his country would hold discussions with its partners at the summit on Tuesday, and that it would take “the best decision, whatever it may be” regarding Sweden.
View the Allies’ defence expenditure: https://aeur.eu/f/7z7 (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)