On Thursday 6 July, the Vice-President for Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight, Maros Šefčovič, presented the European Commission’s 2023 Strategic Foresight Report. This foresight exercise, designed to feed into the debate on governance, was carried out in consultation with the Member States, the institutions and the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS).
The result was an initial scientific document published by the Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the report presented alongside it.
Each year, since the beginning of the mandate of the current college of Commissioners, this exercise has focused on a particular theme. This year’s reflections focused on how to put “sustainability and wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy” from a perspective of inclusion and open strategic autonomy.
The report identified intersections between the social and economic challenges that Europe is currently facing and will face in the future. These include the challenges posed by geopolitical changes and their repercussions on political action and global public opinion, and the need for a new social model combining economic, social and environmental sustainability.
In particular, the report notes the mismatch between the current social contract and the problems associated with longer life expectancy and new forms of employment (including platform work). According to the report, this means there is a need for a new European social contract.
Similarly, the report suggests ways of measuring prosperity other than gross domestic product. “Since the end of the Second World War, we have been using Gross Domestic Product – or GDP – as a measure of economic progress and prosperity. But does growth linked to the exploitation of natural resources such as fossil oil really reflect the prosperity and well-being of our societies?”, Commissioner Šefčovič posed before EUROPE and other journalists.
The Commission has begun methodological work to develop this index. One option, according to the report, would be to assign monetary values to relevant welfare factors and use these values to ‘adjust’ GDP.
The report also raises questions about the skills needed to drive the transition forward and the public and private investment required for the transition. “We have estimated that around €620 billion annually will be needed to meet the objectives of the European Green Deal and of our REPowerEU Plan”, said Commissioner Šefčovič.
In the second part of the report, 10 areas for action are identified, including boosting investment, enabling every citizen to participate in the green transition, promoting Europe’s offer on the international stage and strengthening the ‘civil prevention’ aspect of civil protection.
The Commission’s report is expected to form the basis of a discussion between EU leaders at the informal European Council in Granada in October.
Link to the report: https://aeur.eu/f/7ya (Original version in French by Émilie Vanderhulst)