The European foreign affairs ministers will meet on Monday 20 March in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and Tunisia before being joined by their defence counterparts in a ‘Jumbo Council’ to discuss the delivery of munitions to Ukraine and for an initial review of the ‘Strategic Compass’.
The Foreign Affairs Council will first discuss the situation in Ukraine. As usual, it will start with a videoconference with the Ukrainian minister for foreign affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, who will give an update on the situation on the ground and on his country’s support requirements.
At EU27 level, ministers may consider support for the country on a global scale, following the UN General Assembly vote on 23 February. They could discuss the need to maintain and increase this support and to limit the impact of the war on third countries, including through solidarity lanes and the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. It expires on 18 March. It is thought that Russia may agree to an extension of 60 days, compared to 120 days previously.
Ministers could also discuss sanctions, in particular how to avoid circumvention.
They should also discuss the need to fight impunity and the situation regarding Ukrainian children being kidnapped and sent to Russia. At least 16,000 children have reportedly been kidnapped and 300 are thought to have been brought back to Ukraine by their parents. On this matter, on Friday 17 March the High Representative of the Union, Josep Borrell, welcomed the decision of the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin for the war crime of the illegal deportation and transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia. This, he says, marks the beginning of the accountability process. “There can be no impunity”, he warned.
Tunisia. The ministers will then discuss the situation in Tunisia, which is deteriorating not only from a democratic point of view, but also economically, financially and in terms of migration. Tunisia is a key country for the EU, and is the North African country with which it has the closest partnership, a senior European official said.
“The discussion will aim to take stock and see how we can continue to have a dialogue with the authorities and get things moving in a better direction”, summarised a European diplomat. He recalled that the EU had “many tools and levers” to help the country. “The current political and economic situation is quite alarming; the ministers will certainly send strong messages”, added another diplomat. The Europeans could use the threat of the stick and the carrot.
Iran. More quickly, the Council should address the situation in Iran and adopt a sixth package of measures in response to human rights violations in the country. According to a European source, this would cover nine persons and entities. Human rights abuses – including the poisoning of young girls – Iranian military support for Russia, continued uranium enrichment and arbitrarily imprisoned EU nationals continue to worry Europeans.
Afghanistan. As expected, the ministers should adopt conclusions on Afghanistan. These findings are expected to call for further work towards the possible adoption of sanctions against those responsible for human rights and women’s rights violations in the country.
Conclusions on EU support for the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) should also be adopted.
The situation in Georgia (see EUROPE 13141/20), the blockade of the Lachin corridor in the Caucasus (see EUROPE 13142/7) and the violence in the Near East (see EUROPE 13140/5) could also be mentioned, and the High Representative is expected to brief ministers on the meeting between Serbian and Kosovar leaders, which will take place on 18 March (see EUROPE 13143/17).
Discussion on military support for Ukraine in ‘Jumbo’ format
‘Strategic Compass’. Together with the defence ministers, the European heads of diplomacy will review the implementation of the ‘Strategic Compass’, which was adopted a year ago. The first annual report of the ‘Strategic Compass’ is expected to be presented to ministers.
“Things are progressing according to plan (...) The pace of implementation is very satisfactory”, a European diplomat said, adding that all areas of defence were covered.
According to a senior European official, “we are on the right track, significant progress has been made so far and we need to stay the course”. He added that implementation needs to continue and that it is important to see Member States commit to the goals and to achieving them collectively.
Ukraine. While the ‘Compass’ review should have been the main topic of the ‘Jumbo Council’, it is expected to be overshadowed by the High Representative of the Union’s three-part proposal on the delivery of munitions to Ukraine. Two billion euros from the European Peace Facility is expected to be used on the first two parts of the proposal: sending existing stocks from Member States and joint procurement. The European Peace Facility has already financed 350,000 155mm ammunition rounds for €450 million, or a payout of about €1,250 per round, a senior European official said.
The aim is to have an agreement on the proposal at the ‘Jumbo Council’.
According to a senior official, all three strands need to be worked on in parallel, but at different speeds.
The issue was discussed again among the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU on Friday 17 March. Several questions remain unanswered.
While Norway’s participation in joint procurement seems to be a given, questions remain over other countries.
Moreover, according to a senior European official, while part 1 does not take into account the geographical origin of weaponry, part 2 is expected have a geographical criterion, as the objective is to grow European industry. A European diplomat explained that priority should be given to European equipment and that the discussion should focus on whether to be limited to European productions or to leave the door open to productions from third countries, if the equipment is not available at European level.
The number of available ammunition could be discussed. While some Member States are planning on one million, as proposed by Estonia, others believe that it is necessary to see whether it is realistic to expect to deliver this one million quickly.
Timeframes are another issue that is likely to be discussed. According to a European source, the proposed date for a first joint order is “ambitious, but realistic”. While it currently takes more than 12 months from the time an order is placed to the time the equipment is delivered, the Europeans hope that with a very large order it will be possible to reduce the timeframes.
Furthermore, there is likely to be a consensus on the possibility of joint procurement either through an administering State placing orders for other Member States or through the European Defence Agency (EDA). “If the Ukrainian demand is to be met, the EDA project and the projects of other Member States are needed. Coordinating all this well is how we will succeed”, said a European diplomat.
European Peace Facility. The ministers may discuss increasing the allocation of the European Peace Facility by €3.5 billion. However, the political decision is expected to be taken by the Heads of State or Government at the European Council on 23 and 24 March.
In December, the ministers decided to increased this allocation by €2 billion (2018 prices) in 2023 - funds that are expected to be used in the three-part proposal - and to provide for the possibility of a further increase at a later stage (up to €5.5 billion at 2018 prices until 2027) (see EUROPE 13141/29). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)