Foreign affairs ministers are gathering in Brussels on Monday 12 December for their Council meeting, where they will discuss the war in Ukraine, Iran and may adopt sanctions against Russia and Iran.
Ukraine/Russia. Once again, the ministers will discuss the war in Ukraine and the EU’s support for Kyiv. According to the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, the European institutions and Member States have spent €53 billion in military, financial and humanitarian aid (including the €18 billion macrofinancial aid for 2023 that has yet to be agreed).
The ministers are expected to meet by video conference with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, to discuss his needs.
They could then adopt the ninth package of sanctions against Russia (see EUROPE 13079/1). These sanctions, presented on Wednesday to the ambassadors of the EU Member States, were being discussed by the representatives of the EU27 at the time of writing.
The Council could also discuss the fight against impunity, the issue of reconstruction of the country and the seizure of frozen assets.
Defence. The Council could approve a budget increase for the European Peace Facility (see EUROPE 13079/30). A senior European official said that “everyone is agreed on ensuring the financial sustainability of the Facility”, adding that there was a proposal for short-term needs and another for long-term needs.
This would be an increase of €2 billion for 2023 and, if necessary, a replenishment later. Some sources have spoken of a figure of €3.5 billion.
“€2 billion already ensures that, for the near and semi-medium term, the level of ambition of support for Ukraine remains, and that our other initiatives in the rest of the world are not threatened. All this will make it possible to continue and launch new initiatives”, summarised a European diplomat.
With military support for Ukraine at €3.1 billion, the €5.7 billion budget allocated for the period 2021-2027 is already largely used up. According to another diplomat, there would be €810 million remaining. “Member States are asking for a repayment of €5 billion (related to Ukraine), but we only have €3.1 billion. I need money”, the senior official pleaded.
In addition to an increase in funds, several Member States would like to see a discussion on the structure of the instrument.
Iran. After two quick discussions at previous Council meetings, the ministers are expected to discuss at greater length and adopt conclusions on Iran, whether on the repression of peaceful demonstrations, military support of Russia or the Iranian nuclear deal, which is currently blocked but in which the EU still believes.
The Council is expected to adopt new sanctions against those responsible for the violent repression of the protests, but also against individuals and entities linked to the drones sent to Russia.
According to a European source, the ministers are expected to reiterate their support for the Iranian people and condemn the first execution linked to the protests. On Thursday 8 December, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy issued a statement condemning in the strongest possible terms the execution of 23-year-old artist Mohsen Shekari. He had called on the authorities to refrain from applying the death penalty and from carrying out any further executions and the “unacceptable” practice of using forced and public confessions to establish facts related to alleged crimes.
The discussion could also address how the EU can pressure Iran while not closing the door on more cooperation with the country, if it behaves more responsibly.
Niger. Ministers are expected to agree to the establishment of a “military partnership mission” in Niger to help the armed forces develop their maintenance and logistics capabilities (see EUROPE 13063/34). The three-year mission should start in 2023 with a maximum of 300 people and a budget of €27 million, according to a diplomat.
Current affairs. The Council will quickly discuss the situation in Moldova and the EU’s support - economic, in terms of energy and resilience and for reform - for the country affected by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
According to European sources, the EU is considering support related to security and resilience, which could take the form of a CSDP mission. “The discussion is at an early stage”, said a diplomat. He explained that the European External Action Service would be sending a delegation to the field, in particular to meet the Moldovan authorities to discuss concrete needs and then prepare possible options and “a CSDP mission could be one of them”.
The Council will also focus on Tunisia, ahead of the 17 December elections, including to discuss the post-election communication strategy, and on the EU’s relations with the southern Mediterranean countries and ways to deepen these relations, a few days after the Union for the Mediterranean meeting (see EUROPE 13070/30) and ahead of a planned discussion on relations with the region at the European Council.
The ministers are also expected to discuss the geopolitical consequences of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the implementation of the Global Gateway.
The High Representative could also mention the EU’s commitment to human rights around the world, a few days after International Human Rights Day on 10 December, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan border mission, whose mandate runs until 19 December. According to a European source, the mission is having a positive impact and the Europeans are considering options for next steps.
Conclusions on Yemen. In addition, the ministers are expected to adopt conclusions on Yemen, “where the situation is extremely fragile and requires additional support from the international community”, according to a European source, particularly with the end of the truce (see EUROPE 13034/14), and on civilian CSDP.
Eastern Partnership. Prior to the Council meeting, the EU27 will have breakfast to discuss the Eastern Partnership before the EU-Eastern Partnership ministerial meeting.
The meeting will bring together the EU foreign ministers and those of five of the six Eastern Partnership countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine). It should be an opportunity to reiterate the EU’s support and solidarity with the region, but also to commit to rebalancing the Partnership.
Ministers are expected to discuss how the Partnership can further contribute to strengthening stability and prosperity in the region, including how best to support the resilience of the partners and bring the EU and its Eastern partners even closer together and advance the rule of law and reforms throughout the region. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)