The Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) will continue their discussions on Thursday 7 April on the fifth package of sanctions against Russia, which the European Commission unveiled on the previous day (see EUROPE 12926/8).
After the Coreper discussion on Wednesday 6 April, a European source told EUROPE that the coal embargo and the ban on access to European ports were the “most sensitive” issues, requiring more time and work.
Moreover, according to several European sources, there are still technical issues to be resolved - which is normal given the size of the package proposed on Tuesday - which takes time.
Work continued between the Member States, the European Commission and the European External Action Service (EEAS) on Wednesday to prepare the necessary adjustments with the aim of reaching an early agreement.
One source said that all Member States were in favour of a rapid adoption of the sanctions package. Via Twitter, the French Presidency of the EU Council announced that approval of the sanctions proposals would be on the agenda of an additional Coreper meeting on Thursday, as would the decision to use the written procedure for their adoption.
The ‘flagship’ measure of the new sanctions package is an embargo on Russian coal, which the European Commission estimates would mean a loss of €4 billion a year in revenue for Russia. The EU imports 46% of its coal consumption.
Preparatory work is also continuing on oil imports.
According to a recent analysis by the Conseil d'analyse économique (CAE), a French think-tank which carries out economic analysis for the French government, the economic impact for the EU of an embargo on Russian energy imports would be “manageable on average”, with a drop in income of 0.2 to 0.3%, or €100 per European adult per year.
However, there is “significant heterogeneity” in the magnitude of the energy shock that Member States would experience. Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Finland and the Czech Republic would be severely affected, with a drop in their gross national income of between 1% (Finland, Czech Republic) and 5% (Lithuania). For Germany, the impact “is real (around 0.3% and up to 3% in the most pessimistic scenarios), but overall moderate and can be absorbed”, the analysis points out.
See the CAE analysis: https://aeur.eu/f/14i
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In addition to the European Commission’s announcements, the EU may ban the export of cash in currencies other than the euro and of jet fuel.
Similarly, the EEAS proposes to sanction 36 people, including three politicians, the two daughters of Russian President Vladimir Putin, 24 oligarchs and members of their families, and seven people involved in disseminating propaganda on behalf of the Kremlin. Also affected would be 179 members of the ‘parliaments’ of the breakaway republics.
In addition, 13 military and defence industries and four banks - Otkritie, Novikombank, Sovkombank and VTB - could have their assets frozen.
Pressure from Ukraine
On Wednesday, in a speech by video conference to the Irish Parliament, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky kept up the pressure on the EU, denouncing “indecision” in taking action.
“While the whole world knows about the crimes committed against our people, we still have to convince European companies to leave the Russian market. We still need to convince foreign politicians to cut the links of Russian banks with the international financial system. We still have to convince Europe that Russian oil cannot finance the Russian war machine”, he said.
Russia to respond to expulsion of diplomats
Meanwhile, in response to the announcement by High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell to declare 19 diplomats from the Russian mission persona non grata (see EUROPE 12926/8), Russian Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov assured EEAS Secretary General Stefano Sannino of “the inevitability of adequate reciprocal measures by the Russian side”.
The EU’s “openly unfriendly -- moreover, hostile and, most importantly, completely groundless step continues the EU’s policy of dismantling the partnership between Russia and the EU, which until recently both sides proudly called strategic”, the Russian Mission to the EU said in a statement.
Russia is assessing the expulsion decisions taken by several European countries and will react accordingly. “Nevertheless, our position remains absolutely the same: we plead for diplomatic channels to remain open”, explained Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko. He added, however, that Russia had “no contact with NATO”. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Damien Genicot)