The European External Action Service (EEAS) considered, in a document dated 28 February and obtained by EUROPE, that given the current situation in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, a rebalancing of regional CSDP action in the Sahel seemed necessary.
On 22 February, despite the departure of the Takuba and Barkhane operations from Mali and the tensions between the French and Malian authorities, according to the EEAS, the Malian authorities reaffirmed their wish for the continuation of the EU’s two CSDP missions in Mali (EUTM and EUCAP).
“The security situation in the Sahel continues to deteriorate: Mali and Burkina Faso do not seem to be able to counter the (terrorist) threat, and Niger is under increasing security pressure”, the EEAS document states.
The Service, therefore, recommends that the EUTM Mali mission focuses on its Malian mandate and that permanent dedicated CSDP missions be established in Burkina Faso, if conditions allow, and/or in Niger. “This option will require a coordination structure to ensure the overall coherence of actions in the field of defence in the Sahel”, the document said. According to the EEAS, such an option would allow for a redefinition of the European commitment while safeguarding its freedom of action, should the activities in Mali be stopped.
To respond quickly to needs and ensure continuity, the deployment of Task Forces from EUTM Mali would be the first step before the establishment of dedicated missions, according to the document.
It also believes that CSDP missions should be protected from “any additional security and reputational risks” while showing strategic patience and insisting on the EU’s readiness to continue its support provided that the necessary safeguards are in place. “Temporary suspension of some activities may be necessary”, it warns, while explaining that this is not recommended in the current context.
According to the EEAS, CSDP missions in Mali could face two situations. In the “least critical” case, the Wagner Group’s support would be limited to its current activities without interfering with European support. EUTM Mali would be able to continue its advisory, training and education activities, and EUCAP Sahel Mali could continue its strategic advisory activities.
In the “worst case” scenario, Wagner’s action and incursion into the command, planning and conduct of Malian operations would result in a “breach of trust and partnership” for EUTM Mali. “With the withdrawal of Takuba and Barkhane, EUTM would be reduced by the political and security environment and increased exposure to its competitors”, the paper adds, noting that internal security forces with military status could also be used in connection with Wagner, threatening efforts to combat impunity. “This situation could become a reality, provided that Mali’s new security partner has the means to achieve its objectives”, the EEAS warns. If EUTM Mali can no longer operate in the country, then the end of this mission would lead to a rapid reconfiguration of CSDP military action in the Sahel, according to the diplomatic service.
The strategic reviews of CSDP missions will be presented in spring 2022.
In addition, Swedish Minister for Foreign Affairs Ann Linde announced on Thursday 3 March, that Sweden will withdraw its military contribution to the UN mission Minusma from November 2022 and that the mission will be completed by June 2023, one year earlier than originally planned. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)