The number of people employed is expected to return to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic level in 2022, but the recovery in the number of hours worked in the European Union compared to 2019 will be slower, according to the baseline scenario used by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) in a study published at the end of October.
This baseline scenario, weighed against three others, predicts strong economic growth in 2021 and 2022 as a result of the vaccination campaigns, despite the continuation of some health measures in the geographical areas affected by Covid-19. States are predicted to maintain expansionary budgetary policies until 2026, with budgetary aid targeted in particular at the sectors of activity (tourism, catering) and the categories of population (young people, low-skilled workers) most in difficulty. The Next Generation EU Recovery Plan would support much-needed investment in the green and digital transitions.
According to the study, all Member States except Ireland will return to their pre-pandemic employment levels by 2022. On the other hand, when it comes to the number of hours worked, a majority of Member States are expected to return to their 2019 level in 2023, but it would take until 2026 in the case of Italy, or even longer in the case of Ireland, Romania or Slovakia. On this point, data is not available for Belgium and Sweden.
On Wednesday, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported that in September, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the euro area fell from 7.5% in August to 7.4% in September (8.6% in September 2020), and from 6.9% to 6.7% over the same period at EU level (7.7% in September 2020).
The authors of the study recommend that policymakers maintain job retention programmes, such as the short-time working schemes that were rolled out on a massive scale during the pandemic. However, deeper reforms are needed to tackle long-term labour market challenges, such as youth unemployment, which risk increasing socio-economic inequalities, they warn.
See the study: https://bit.ly/31wzTdH (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)