It took a long time to find out the final result of the US elections on 3 November. In the realm of management, it is astonishing that a more efficient modus operandi, in line with the digital age, has not yet been found. Fifty States, each with its own rules and working methods, does not help. Above all, the electoral system, no doubt justified at the dawn of the US Federal Republic, reveals its archaism in broad daylight. It undermines the fundamental principle of universal suffrage.
Twice in 20 years, the candidates with the most citizen votes were barred from the White House by this unequal process: Al Gore in 2000 and, more significantly, Hillary Clinton in 2016. Rather than addressing all citizens equally, the election campaign is a race in key states, those where the jackpot produces the most delegates and those with a shifting electorate. If one day the European Union were to have a President legitimised by the popular vote, heaven forbid that governments should not impose a US-style electoral process on us and instead respect the simple principle of equality of votes, as it works successfully in our republics where the President is elected by direct universal suffrage.
So four years ago, with nearly three million votes less than his rival, Donald Trump became President of the United States (see EUROPE 11664/1). The aberrant system had produced an aberrant leader. In the history of Western democracies, never before has a political leader been seen to be endowed with so much power and to have so many faults: incompetence, laziness, lack of foresight, historical ignorance, lies, exacerbated narcissism, primary authoritarianism, intimidation, racism, sexism, climate scepticism, incitement to hatred, ongoing verbal violence, fiscal incivism, denial of science, irresponsibility with regard to the health of his fellow citizens.
Moreover, ‘Trumpism’ was emulated, especially on social networks; using the example set from above, disrespect for others, rudeness, harassment, supremacy, and conspiracy were unleashed ad nauseam. A great supporter of Brexit, Trump served as a model for the European extreme right and the illiberal leaders. Scorning the European Union and international organisations, the champion of America First leaves a world with less solidarity and a more violent and radically divided country.
With a 66% turnout, the highest since 1900, the 2020 election is already historic. Joe Biden is the oldest president-elect, but he is credited with an impressive political background. The legitimacy of the winner is clear, with 50.6% of the popular vote and a large majority of the electorate. However, he will have to deal with the ‘reasonable’ Republicans in order to unify a sick society since the Democrats have not obtained a majority in the Senate. His domestic priority is logically health-related.
Internationally, the new administration will return to multilateralism; reintegrate the United States into the Paris Agreement, the WHO, UNESCO and the Iranian nuclear deal; normalise relations with the WTO; and sit at the disarmament negotiations table. Transatlantic relations will surely be more fruitful, especially in the area of trade. Since Kennedy, Democratic presidents have been more pro-European than Republicans. The link with Europe will even be felt more with Biden than with Obama: because of his Irish origins, no doubt, but also because of his acute awareness of the Russian threat. However, continuity in the defence of national interests will be reflected in the ongoing requirement for Europeans to participate more in the financing of NATO (see EUROPE 12060/1). On the other hand, any affinity with dictators, including Putin, will be over.
Negotiations between London and the EU on post-Brexit relations have made little progress (see EUROPE 12595/1). It is said that Boris Johnson was waiting for the result of the US vote to define his strategy. If he was counting on his friend Donald for a fabulous trade deal and the flourishing “special relationship” with Washington, he must be disappointed. Between the sympathiser of Irish Catholics and the Good Friday Agreement (sponsored by the Democrat President Clinton) and the brutal defender of local Protestants, it will be difficult to get the ball rolling, especially since Biden has already publicly condemned the British law of September for non-compliance with the international treaty with the EU. Outside of it, the United Kingdom will be less useful to US diplomacy, which will favour Brussels, Paris and Berlin.
The American people have chosen a president who has human qualities. In this way, he renews his own humanity, his aspiration for a peaceful society that respects people, whatever their origin, culture, skin colour or income. But he also reconnects with all of Humanity, with its common good, making possible a major contribution by the United States to the future of the planet, whether it be climate, the biosphere, health or balanced relations allowing peace.
(Original version in French by Renaud Denuit)