US President Donald Trump has once again made compliance with the 2% of GDP rule for military spending his trumpeted cause for the NATO summit which opened in Brussels on Wednesday 11 July.
During the summit in Wales in 2014, the members of the transatlantic Alliance had agreed to step up their military spending to 2% of GDP by 2024.
In a public declaration after the first day of the summit, the heads of state and government of the Atlantic Alliance nations “reaffirmed their steadfast attachment to all aspects of the defence commitment taken at the summit in Wales”, adding that an “equitable sharing of cost was the foundation of the Alliance’s cohesion, solidarity and credibility, and its ability to fulfil its commitments”.
During the working breakfast with Jens Stoltenberg, Trump immediately expressed his displeasure regarding the mismatch between the United States and its European allies when it comes to military expenditure.
“We are spending too much money on protecting Germany, France and other countries. That has been going on for decades. (This matter) was raised by other presidents but they did nothing about it”, he had bemoaned. “These countries have to step it up – not over a 10-year period but immediately”, he ordered, describing this gap as “very unfair” to American taxpayers.
According to Bulgarian President Rumen Radev, cited by several media, the US president “raised the question not just to reach 2%, today, but set a new target - 4%”.
Upon their arrival at the summit, the Latvian and Polish presidents, whose countries do comply with the 2% rule, gave their support to Trump. The increase in military spending is “necessary for our security of Europe”, said Raymond Vejonis of Latvia. The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, said “this is our responsibility and this is our obligation”.
It was obvious that the message had been received loud and clear by the other partners. Belgium’s Prime Minister Charles Michel, called for Europeans to continue on the road of investment “to guarantee security and stability”. According to a source from the Elysée, cited by AFP, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, said when taking the floor at the session that “unity was not possible without a balanced sharing of costs and responsibilities” between member states. “Europeans have clearly understood this message”, he said.
Trump has his sights set on Germany
The US president was particularly disparaging of Germany, which seems to be his whipping boy at the moment. He mainly criticised the fact that 70% of energy in Germany comes from Russia, a level which, he said, is “inappropriate” and which runs counter to the principles of NATO.
“Germany only pays a little over 1% while the United States, in real figures, pays 4.2% of a GDP that is far larger. I believe that is also inappropriate”, Trump stressed. He went on to say: “Germany is a rich country. They are saying they can increase it a tiny bit by 2030. Well, they could increase it immediately tomorrow and have no problem”.
In 2018, defence spending by Germany is expected to account for only 1.24% of GDP.
The previous day, the NATO secretary general had pointed out that Berlin had increased, and was continuing to increase, its military spending. Germany plans an 80% rise of spending in real terms between 2014 and 2024. However, Stoltenberg explained: “Of course, I expect Germany, as many other Allies, to do more”.
Substantial progress since 2014
Although Trump preferred to see a half empty glass, Stoltenberg prefers to see it half-full. “We all agree to say that we must do more. I agree with you in saying that we must ensure our Allies invest more. The good news is that the Allies have already begun to invest more in defence”, he told Trump. “Last year saw the largest increase in defence spending in Europe and Canada for a generation”, he added, going on to admit that the (very direct) message from Trump had an impact on the Allies.
In 2017, defence-related spending in Europe increased by 3.99% and it is predicted that it will be up by 4.84% this year. In addition, some Alliance and EU countries – Bulgaria, Latvia and the Netherlands – could step up their spending by over 20% in 2018 compared to 2017.
According to national plans that two-thirds of the Allies drew up last year, the European Allies and Canada are expected to spend an additional US$266 billion for defence by 2024, Stoltenberg said. The setting in place of these national plans had been supported by Trump in order to reach the 2% threshold by 2024.
Eight Allies should (almost) reach the military spending objective this year, to reach 2% of GDP. Thus, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania and Romania will join the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece and Estonia that met the commitment threshold in 2014.
According to the secretary general, in addition to these eight countries, most Allies presented national plans on how to reach the threshold fixed within ten years. “I’m aware that some Allies would like to see even quicker movement, even higher speed when it comes to defence spending but at least we are moving in the right direction”, he explained during the conference entitled “NATO engages: the Brussels Summit Dialogue”, held on the sidelines of the summit.
Some 15 member states including Germany, Italy, Belgium and Spain, still devote less than 1.4% of their national wealth on defence. For these countries, compliance with the 2% rule in 2024 will be very difficult, if not impossible. (Original version in French by Carmen Garcia and Camille-Cerise Gessant)