On Thursday 12 July, the Eurozone finance ministers will exchange views on the conclusions of the Eurozone summit of 29 June (see EUROPE 12052) and on Bulgaria's application to join the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) and Banking Union.
A relatively relaxed Eurogroup session is expected this Thursday, as the Greek dossier is no longer officially on the agenda, since the most recent Eurogroup meeting took official note of the end of the third Greek bailout plan (see EUROPE 12046).
The ministers will firstly look at the conclusions of the recent Eurozone summit concerning the deepening of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). On this occasion, the Eurogroup received a mandate to present the future architecture of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the backstop for the Single Resolution Fund, a role to be taken by the ESM, by the end of the year. The Eurogroup will also prepare a roadmap for the relaunch of political negotiations on the creation of a European deposit insurance scheme (EDIS).
Bulgaria. Although the subject is not officially on the Eurozone financial policy-makers' agenda, they will exchange views on Bulgaria's ambitions of joining the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), a compulsory stage towards adopting the euro and Banking Union.
A letter to this effect has recently been sent by Sofia to various European figures, making the country's application official. This comes as no surprise: Vladislav Goranov, the Bulgarian finance minister, who will address the European Parliament this Thursday, spoke of this possibility back in January (see EUROPE 11937).
Subject to compliance with the monetary criteria, Bulgaria may join the ERM II in June 2019. It will not join Banking Union until it has subjected its banking system to an in-depth resilience test (banking stress test and ECB asset quality review).
No decision on this dossier appears to be expected of this Eurogroup.
European Semester. The Eurogroup will also discuss the summer interim economic forecasts, which will have been presented by the European Commission on the same day.
It will also discuss the budgetary trajectory of the Eurozone as a whole for 2019. The chair of the European Budgetary Committee, Niels Thygesen, will present a specific report that was published in mid-June (see EUROPE 12043).
Greece. Although Greece is not on the agenda of the Nineteen, the country's economic situation is still being closely scrutinised.
In this regard, the Commission activated the enhanced surveillance post-programme framework on Wednesday 11 July and this may remain in place until 2022. It aims to scrutinise the compliance and implementation of the commitments made by Athens once it leaves the financial assistance plan on 20 August.
This surveillance framework is not a fourth programme, as Pierre Moscovici, the Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, insisted on Wednesday.
Quarterly assessment missions will help to identify the risks and challenges in six key areas: fiscal and fiscal structural policies, social welfare, financial stability, labour and product markets, privatisation and public administration.
On the basis of these reports, the debt relief measures agreed by the Eurogroup in June may be activated. (Original version in French by Lucas Tripoteau)