In an analysis published on Monday 2 March on EU-United Kingdom relations, Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), believes that the positions of the parties are not as opposed as they appear to be. But, he adds, "in practice, it requires the UK to move a lot and the EU to move a little".
As negotiations begin between the European Union and the United Kingdom on their future relationship, Sam Lowe believes there is "an eventual route out of the quagmire" and that an ambitious agreement is possible before 31 December.
On the trade part of the talks, Mr Lowe considers that the parties basically have the same level of ambition: the abolition of all tariffs and quotas and a broad coverage which includes services, transport, intellectual property and telecommunications (see EUROPE 12432/2).
The compromises will be more delicate on fisheries (see EUROPE 12432/3), but, warns the Briton, failure on these issues would be "very damaging to certain parts of the industry", particularly the shellfish, fish processing and wholesale sectors.
Another sensitive issue is the level playing field required by the continent. As it stands, Lowe deciphers, the choice for London is to refuse - and thus opt directly for customs duties - or to accept and thus guarantee duty-free trade. In the latter case, London would have to live with the risk that the EU could reinstate tariffs if it felt that the UK was deviating too far from EU standards on environmental and labour protection. A scenario that Mr Lowe considers "really quite unlikely".
For the CER expert, the EU will have to compromise on State Aid and the question of direct application of EU law, Lowe said. He calls for an approach "focused on achieving the same outcomes via different means and common high standards" and for disputes to be resolved through arbitration.
Mr Lowe called for a "de-dramatisation" of the Irish border issue, as "there is a much greater scope for importer and exporter obligations to be managed away from the border and through existing processes".
Finally, on the format of the final agreement, the British researcher believes that it is unlikely that the EU will agree to negotiate separate agreements so as not to fall back into the inextricable tangle of agreements with Switzerland. (Original version in French by Hermine Donceel)