Mondialisation et national-populisme
“Yesterday and today, those who have lost out from globalisation have looked to the restoration of a protected State for a response to the feeling of growing economic and cultural insecurity. This has led to democratic responses, such as the New Deal in the United States and the post-war social-democratic compromise in Western Europe, but also to totalitarian responses, such as Stalinism, Fascism and national-socialism”, states Arnaud Zacharie in this work, which is devoted to the “new great transformation” (our translations throughout). The author, who holds a doctorate in political and social sciences and is a senior lecturer at the Free University of Brussels and the Free University of Liège, compares the current period with the situation experienced by Europe and, more broadly, the entire Western world between the end of the 19th century and the middle of the 20th century, with successive phases of accelerated transformation and “fortification”, followed by a stage of looking inward or “de-fortification”.
The book begins with a description of the “first globalisation”, between 1870 and 1914, and of the phenomenon of crisis and withdrawal it generated in turn, according to the theory developed by Karl Polanyi. In a second part, the author describes the excesses of neo-liberal globalisation and the financialisation of the economy, which have led in turn to a backlash that is liable to undermine the Western democracies. The characteristics and implications of the nationalist and populist tendencies are analysed in a third section. The work concludes by presenting various future options that could help to escape the identity-based and nationalist downward spiral.
Zacharie contends that we are currently experiencing a “populist moment”, defined by Marc Lazar, Director of the History Department of the University Sciences Po, as a “political syndrome that is reflected in the emergence of movements and leaders proclaiming the existence of a major antagonism between a population held up to be united, good and virtuous on the one hand, and a homogenous, diabolical, perverse elite, permanently plotting against the first group, on the other”. At the same time, however, the author stresses the “dual paradox of national populism”, which “purports to respond to the demands of those who have lost out from globalisation while preserving the neoliberal agenda” and which “claims to defend Western values while calling human rights and the foundations of the liberal democracy into question”.
Although the author expresses particular concern at right-wing populism, he acknowledges that left-wing populism is not entirely above major criticism. Quoting an extract from the book “Naufrage des civilisations”, published in 2019 by Grasset, he notes that the author, Amin Maalouf, expresses concern at the current tendency of certain left-wing forces, which “once flew the flag of humanism and universalism, but now prefer to push for arguments of identity, by making themselves the spokespersons for various ethnic, community or categorical minorities; as if by renouncing the idea of building a project for society as a whole, they hoped to become a majority once again by combining resentments”. “When you base your strategy on divisions of this kind, you inevitably contribute to fragmentation and disintegration”, Maalouf adds.
Although he stresses at length the analogy between the current nationalist and populist tendencies and the crises of the 1930s, Zacharie lays equal emphasis on the differences between them. He notes in particular that the multilateral system of the start of the current century contains far more solid institutions and constraints than back then, such as those under the aegis of the WTO, the Court of Justice of the European Union or the European Convention of Human Rights, which served to make unilateral actions against the rest of the world and breaches of human rights more complicated. “Unlike in the 1930s, the development of social protection systems after the Second World War also help to deaden the social shock of the economic crisis – and, consequently, the violence of the political reaction”, he adds.
But it is also within this context that the trade conflict between the United States and China has developed, as the only visible part of a deeper competition for global leadership. “While the United States turns in on itself and the European Union is becoming divided, China is developing its own ‘New Silk Road’ project, which aims to make the country the world’s foremost global power by 2049, the year of the centenary of Mao Zedong’s declaration of the People’s Republic of China”, Zacharie observes, interpreting it as possible beginning of “Cold War 2.0”.
“Abandoned by its traditional American ally and incapable of defining its own coherent China strategy, the European Union has been caught off-balance by the tilting of the world. Not only does the EU risk being the collateral victim of the growing rivalry between the United States and China, but the resulting crisis of multilateralism also casts doubt on the foundation stones of European construction, the most ambitious experiment in supranational integration. The differences of opinion between member states, exacerbated by the rise of national populism and the decline of the traditional political parties, threaten the European Union with paralysis or even disintegration”, the author observes.
Is there a way out? “Rather than making countless intrusive rules and regulations that reduce the member states’ political room for manoeuvre to no good purpose, European integration should instead refocus its priorities on the areas in which it genuinely has value to add to all of its members, whilst adopting the resources to reabsorb the internal differences that are undermining it from the inside”, Zacharie writes. The priority areas for work to which he refers are: finalising a genuine banking union; establishing a true energy union; an integrated asylum and migration policy; European social and fiscal harmonisation; making the European defence project a reality; a political and budgetary union, with budgetary rules adapted to the challenges of the ecological and social transition, a Eurogroup upgraded into a proper Eurozone economic government, whose decisions are transparent and subject to the checks and balances of the European Parliament, together with an adequate budget to allow the EU a true redistributive function to reabsorb internal imbalances. He adds that “only the implementation of common projects leading to visible benefits that are shared by all member states can possibly plug the gap between Europe and its citizens”. Listing all of this may seem like so much hot air and even derisory. Doctors may all be very familiar with the remedy described, but they endlessly debate the dosage and mode of application rather than treating the patient. Similarly, Europe has gone from sick to chronically sick. The patient now needs urgent life-saving treatment. (Olivier Jehin)
Arnaud Zacharie. Mondialisation et national-populisme – La nouvelle grande transformation (available in French only). Éditions Le bord de l’eau. ISBN: 978-2-35687-6812. 375 pages. €27.00
Le Japon. Un modèle en déclin?
By way of 100 questions, Valérie Niquet takes us on a very specific journey across Japan, its traditions, its history and its economy. The author, who is the head of the Asia office of the French Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, introduces us to a complex and multifaceted country full, on the surface, of contradictions, which is both “looking to the future and facing the past, modern and deeply traditional, self-satisfied and anxious, prepared to accept external innovations and with little talent for integrating foreigners, be they investors or migrants” (our translation). Although this portrait owes much to history, for the country was closed to foreigners for two centuries (from 1641 to 1853), and to a culture that is a midpoint between tradition and creativity, it also allows the reader to understand the capacity for social and economic resilience of a country that could serve as an example in certain areas.
As the book covers all areas, it would be pointless to try and sum it up here. Let us state briefly that its decline is highly relative, although the feeling is shared by Japanese society. Certainly, the economy has been flatlining for several years, but it is still based on solid foundations. Debt, admittedly, stands at 200% of GDP, but almost all of it is in the hands of the Japanese themselves. The country’s financial assets represent 27,000 billion dollars and household assets 330% of GDP. Despite competition from the rest of Asia, particularly from China, Japan has, like Germany, managed to retain a dense and diversified industrial fabric. Agriculture, on the other hand, has virtually disappeared. It represents just 1.7% of GNI. Just 11% of cultivable land is farmed today, corresponding to barely 2% of Japan’s total surface area. It is worth noting that the concept of teikei or Japanese organic agricultural co-partnerships appeared in 1960, in response to pesticide pollution.
The country’s demographic decline, on the other hand, is considerable. The Japanese population fell from 130 million in 2018 to 127 million in 2018. The lowest annual birth rate since 1895 was recorded in 2019 and the ageing of the population is accelerating: in 2019, 28% of all Japanese people were above the age of 65.
Although in 2019, 54% of Japanese people said they were still opposed to a revision of the Constitution aiming to give country’s defence forces a constitutional nature and continue to support a form of pacifism inherited from the Second World War and the nuclear bombing suffered by Nagasaki and Hiroshima, Japan has significant conventional capabilities and, with a budget of $47 billion earmarked for defence in 2018, it is in eighth place globally, immediately behind France. However, the defence forces (247,000 strong) have had no combat experience since their creation in 1954 and are now struggling to recruit in an ageing country. In 2019, therefore, the age limit had to be raised. Worth a read for anybody keen to discover or rediscover this unique country. (OJ)
Valérie Niquet. Le Japon. Un modèle en déclin? (en 100 questions) (available in French only). Tallandier. ISBN: 979-10-3395-5. 328 pages. €16.90
L’Arménie entre la Russie et l’Occident
Anna Mkhoyan’s monograph on Armenia starts with an analysis of relations between Western Europe and Russia in the 20th century and early 21st century, thereby weaving the backdrop against which this country, which experienced a velvet revolution in 2018, takes its position. The author then goes on to analyse the voting patterns of the post-soviet states within the multilateral system vis-à-vis Russia and the West between 1997 and 2018, highlighting the fact that Armenia is lined up on Russia. Overall, 70% of Armenian votes cast at the General Assembly of the United Nations coincided with Russian voting. One of the issues on which they have voted differently is Iran, with which economic relations strengthened between 2009 and 2017. Mkhoyan argues that Armenia’s close ties with Russia can be explained by the defence agreements between the two countries and the importance of Russian businesses to its economy, particularly the energy sector, although the EU has also established itself as a major economic partner of the country. In 2017, 24% of Armenia’s external trade was with the EU and 27% with Russia. Finally, the author notes that Armenian public opinion is considerably more in favour of the EU than of NATO. According to a 2018 opinion poll, however, the EU was ranked as only the third most important political partner of the country, jointly with Georgia (37% of respondents), behind Russia (78%) and France 60%), but ahead of the United States (30%). (OJ)
Anna Mkhoyan. L’Arménie entre la Russie et l’Occident – Quelle évolution dans un environnement complexe? (Available in French only) Peter Lang. ISBN: 978-2-8076-1161-0. 212 pages. €39.00
Bilan de l’Agenda numérique européen: quand la poussière retombe
The revue de l’Union européenne devotes its January edition to digital law in the EU, with a notable article by Valérie-Laure Benabou, Laurent Cytermann and Célia Zolynski, taking stock of the construction of a single digital market “at breakneck speed”. The authors regret the fact that the Commission has remained set in this logic, which has proven inadequate, from several points of view, to meet the challenges specific to the digital revolution. “Some may take the view that the marketplace-based approach adopted thus far is approaching its limits in view of the reality of data traffic, which is spreading outside any legal intervention. The effectiveness of digital mobility is now dwindling in a context of concentration and power of digital actors, mostly American and Chinese”, the authors observe (our translation throughout).
Although one of the achievements of the legislative period ended was the introduction of “platforms” in positive law, the vehicle for a new approach to holding the intermediaries of digital to account, they regret the fact that the legislator was unable to agree upon a common definition of the notion of platform. They explain that “it is strange, for instance, that the Copyright in the Digital Single Market Directive and the P2B (Platform to business) regulation define platforms as a type of information society service, whereas the AVMSD (Audiovisual Media Services Directive) defines them as a type of service within the meaning of articles 56 and 57 of the TFEU. It is even stranger that the recommendation of the European Commission of 1 March 2018 on measures to effectively tackle illegal content online is based on the notion of host, although it is aimed at the same type of players. The result is an over-complication of the legal categories applicable to digital intermediaries”.
Europe’s attempt to come across as a model for digital regulation has certainly had a great deal more success in the protection of personal data. The GDPR has very quickly established itself as a global standard, including in India and Canada. All the same, the rhetoric of sovereignty expressing a desire to apply a European legal corpus even to players from outside Europe if their activities are carried out on European soil continues to stumble over the problems of server location or the use of the cloud. “The combination of a technical reality – most cloud solutions are operated by North American actors – and the capacity for interference of the United States through legislation of an extra-territorial scope constitutes an offensive, the European response to which falls short of the considerations of sovereignty it claims to defend”, the authors argue. (OJ)
Valérie-Laure Benabou, Laurent Cytermann and Célia Zolynski. Bilan de l’Agenda numérique européen : quand la poussière retombe (available in French only). Revue de l’Union européenne. Edition 634 – January 2020. Éditions Dalloz. €50.03