Money will be the key issue on Thursday 12 December, when EU leaders will try to reach agreement on the EU's objective of a transition to climate neutrality by 2050 to finalise the political guidelines that will guide the development of the EU's long-term climate strategy to be prepared by the Commission.
Following the presentation of the European Green Deal, it is not clear that the leaders of the Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) have all the assurances they want on the amounts they believe they need to ensure a transition that is "cost-effective, fair and socially balanced and equitable", according to the draft conclusions dated 9 December and discussed by the General Affairs Council of the EU on Tuesday 10 December.
The discussion on the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) on Thursday evening may help them to see things more clearly, but it will not be conclusive.
"There is pressure, but I am optimistic the leaders can find an agreement on Thursday. The MFF is linked with the Just Transition Fund", Finnish Minister for European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen told reporters at the end of the EU Council meeting.
Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič stressed that the discussion had focused a lot on "ambition" and that he had stressed the importance of the investments required, but also on "the cost of inaction in terms of loss of human life". He said he understood the different starting points of Member States and the need to ensure "fair treatment to meet the challenges ahead".
The Commission's proposal on a Just Transition Mechanism, expected before the proposed European law that will set the EU's climate neutrality in stone by 2050, will play a crucial role.
The Czech Prime Minister, who chairs the Visegrad Group, said he was ready to block any agreement if the accompanying funds are not sufficient, but could change his mind if he gets more support, especially for nuclear energy. Poland, for its part, continues to want more details on the amounts.
"There must be an agreement on climate neutrality, the acceptance of a just transition and support for the regions that need it most so that the Commission can work on the eligibility criteria", a European source said on Tuesday.
The draft conclusions welcome the announcement made by the European Commission on 4 December that its proposals will aim to facilitate the mobilisation of €100 billion of investment (through leverage: editor’s note - see EUROPE 12384/11) and states that the European Council will return to this subject in the context of the negotiations on the future MFF.
We are no longer talking about a significant share of the next budget, but about "a significant contribution of the next budget to climate action".
Concession to the most climate-friendly countries: the text states that the European Council invites the Commission to prepare the long-term strategy as soon as possible in 2020 for adoption by the EU Council and communication to the UNFCCC secretariat, whereas the draft conclusions of 2 December did not mention a date (see EUROPE 12383/7). The June conclusions referred to a communication to the UN in early 2020.
The text provides that the update of the EU's 2030 objective will be submitted prior to an extended impact assessment, but in good time before the COP 26 (in Glasgow).
See draft conclusions: http://bit.ly/38tqK4C (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)