NATO Heads of State and Government gather in London on 3 and 4 December for a meeting.
If one of the objectives is to celebrate the Alliance's 70th anniversary, leaders are also expected to look to the future. In recent weeks, the Alliance has been the subject of severe criticism from French President Emmanuel Macron.
According to one source, a "doctrinal, political, strategic and operational" response is needed for NATO. "What is the threat today? How should the end of the INF Treaty be managed? Should the fight against terrorism be part of our missions? What role should European nations play in the Alliance?", asked one diplomat. He added: "You really shouldn't build a plan or a strategy if you don't answer these questions. The time has come to ask them”.
Allied military spending, which had monopolised the last two summits and is the spearhead of US President Donald Trump, will once again be on the Allies' menu.
On Friday, 29 November, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the fifth consecutive year of increased defence spending by the European Allies and Canada. "The increase in real terms for 2019 is 4.6%", he said.
Mr Stoltenberg also came back on the Allies' commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence by 2024. For 2019, the average for European states and Canada is 1.57%. According to forecasts, nine Allies are already expected to respect this 2%: the United States, but also Bulgaria, Greece, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. In contrast, Luxembourg, Belgium and Spain are the worst performers, with less than 1%.
In London, leaders are expected to discuss ways to improve the readiness of the forces. Mr Stoltenberg welcomed the progress. Last year, leaders launched the NATO Readiness Initiative, which consists of 30 battalions, 30 air squadrons and 30 naval combat vessels ready in 30 days. "We have made substantial progress. The Allies have already designated more than 90% of these forces", said Mr. Stoltenberg, who hoped for further announcements at the meeting.
According to the Secretary General, leaders should follow their ministers and recognise space as an operational domain of the Alliance, as are already the land, sea, air and cyberspace (see EUROPE 12372/23). "This is a clear recognition that space is essential to the success of our operations and missions, whether for early warning, communication or navigation", said Mr Stolgenberg.
The Heads of State and Government are also expected to take stock of NATO's role in the fight against terrorism, including the training missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. They are expected to discuss Russia and the future of arms control, including the Alliance's response to the Russians' violation of the INF Treaty. "There is no naivety, no bet to make on Russia, there is a dialogue of demands to build, on the basis of clear parameters, to get out of a frozen situation" of relations, summarised a diplomatic source.
China and its significant modernised military, its increased presence from the Arctic to the Balkans and cyberspace, and its major infrastructure investments could be addressed.
Finally, Turkey's intervention in northeastern Syria without consulting other Alliance members could also be discussed, according to a diplomatic source. "Within the Alliance, we cannot forget the need to consult each other, to ensure that everyone's needs are taken into account”, this source noted.
A joint statement is being prepared. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)