The EU will grant the UK a third Brexit extension, but won’t commit until Westminster makes its next move.
Most UK news programmes, along with Ireland’s public broadcaster RTE, feature a Brexit countdown clock in the corner of the screen. It’s almost certain they’ll have to reset those clocks next week, following EU ambassadors’ tacit agreement to the UK’s (reluctant) request for more time.
According to House of Commons speaker John Bercow, Brexit is now “in limbo” because, although Parliament agreed on Tuesday to back the latest EU-UK deal (EUROPE 12354/11), British MPs insisted on having more time to scrutinise the implementing legislation (known as the ‘Brexit bill’) which runs to 234 pages (including explanatory notes).
Back in March/April, when EU leaders agreed a mini-extension and then a kind of ‘flextension’, delaying Brexit to 31 October (EUROPE 12233/1), it was the European elections looming into view. Now, it’s a UK general election, which the British government wants to hold on 12 December.
Any dates, it’s needless to say, come with caveats. Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar has backed an EU idea to delay Brexit until the end of January 2020. But French Europe minister, Amélie de Montchalin, wants more clarity from the British government on whether and when they will hold a general election, before the EU makes any more decisions. “We are not going to engage in political fiction,” she told France’s RTL Radio on Thursday.
The UK prime minister can’t just call an election. A 2011 law, championed by former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg (in large part to prevent his then-Conservative coalition partners from springing a snap election on the public to win back their majority) stipulates a five-year break between elections, unless two-thirds of MPs vote for one or fail to form a government after a 'no confidence’ vote. Boris Johnson’s election bid could fail on both counts: many Labour MPs are loath to back a new election, fearing they will lose it. They are wavering on a no confidence vote for similar reasons.
The House of Commons will sit on Monday afternoon to debate Mr Johnson's motion on an early general election. There could be any number of amendments to that motion, including, for example, lowering the voting age to 16 (which the Labour Party hopes would boost its prospects).
EU ambassadors will meet either Monday or Tuesday to try to agree the length of their preferred Brexit extension. The good news is that EU leaders won’t have to tramp back to Brussels for an emergency summit because it will all be done by written procedure – if European Council president Donald Tusk gets his way.
All of this back and forth has led to further fears of no deal.
The Times newspaper frames it as an “EU stalemate pushing Britain to the brink of no deal”. But if an anonymous civil servant, writing in The Guardian newspaper this week, is to be believed, the UK government is not ready for it, and much of its no-deal preparations are “just for show”: “Heaven help us if no deal actually happens. Because, even with the best efforts of civil servants like me, Operation Yellowhammer won’t be enough, even with its enormous price tag. Not even close.” (Sarah Collins)