The Brexit deal is essentially a mix of the EU’s original backstop and UK’s old “customs partnership” idea, which Brussels officials described as “magical thinking”. Getting it over the line will be the next trick.
Brexit is still very much up in the air (EUROPE 12351/1, 12351/2). The compromise on Northern Ireland – which will remain in the UK’s customs union but mimic EU customs rules – has yet to be fully worked out, and has the possibility of being overturned every four years. So the two parliamentary votes – one this Saturday in London, one (potentially) next week in Strasbourg (EUROPE 12352/14)– are merely the first steps in what is set to be an endless post-Brexit saga.
Boris Johnson told EU leaders he was confident of getting the deal through Parliament this Saturday. He refused to speculate on what he will do if he loses the vote, though, effectively, he has only two options: ask for an extension, which he has sworn he will not do (and which the EU doesn’t want) or leave the EU without a deal on 31 October. A general election is inevitable, whether or not the deal goes through, with a second referendum a very distant possibility (if Mr Johnson loses that election).
The Parliamentary arithmetic is anything but clear. There are a total of 650 MPs in the House of Commons, though 11 don’t vote (including the speaker, John Bercow, his three deputies and 7 Sinn Féin MPs, who have a long-standing policy of never taking their seats at Westminster). Assuming all other eligible members exercise their vote, Mr Johnson will need at least 320 MPs on his side to get the deal through. But who can he count on?
Not all of the Conservative Party’s 288 MPs will support him, though he has the backing of most of the hard Brexit-supporting European Research Group, who are thought to number around 80. He can’t count on 23 former Conservative MPs who were either expelled from or left the party last month, and now sit as Independents, but they may well decide to accept the deal rather than risk a no-deal crash out.
On the opposition benches, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has instructed his 244 fellow MPs to vote against the deal, but 18 of them (led by backbencher Stephen Kinnock) wrote to the Commission last week saying they may vote in favour of it. Firmly against the deal are the Scottish National Party’s 35 Westminster MPs, the 19 Liberal Democrats and the 10 Democratic Unionists.
But it’s not just London that controls the fate of Brexit. The European Parliament’s group leaders are due to meet on Monday evening to decide their next steps, with a vote pencilled in for Thursday (as long as the deal passes the House of Commons first). If they don’t get around to a vote, the next opportunity is the November Strasbourg session, which will require a Brexit extension, however “technical”. The Greens/EFA group are sceptical about Mr Johnson's prospects, and say a deal should be put to a second referendum for “the British people to have the final say”. A massive protest is due to take place in London this Saturday to campaign for a “people’s vote”.
This is not the end. (Sarah Collins)