The UK prime minister is playing hardball on Brexit, hoping to see off domestic opposition and pressure the EU into agreeing “the deal that we need”. But it’s unclear what that deal actually is.
Brexit will happen on 31 October, “come what may”, Boris Johnson insists. He has asked the Queen to suspend Parliament for a number of weeks ahead of Brexit day (EUROPE 12315/2). And, according to Buzzfeed news, his team are war-gaming ways to see off other potential legal or political challenges, such as a vote of no confidence in his government.
“I'm afraid that the more our friends and partners think, at the back of their minds, that Brexit could be stopped, that the UK could be kept in by parliament, the less likely they are to give us the deal that we need,” Mr Johnson told Sky News on Friday. “It’s by getting ready to come out anyway that we have greatly strengthened our position with our friends and partners in the EU, because they see that we are serious.”
The EU is taking Mr Johnson seriously. Although he was a hit at last week’s G7 summit in Biarritz, toeing the EU line on Iran, climate change and global trade (EUROPE 12313/10), European officials are wary of his tactics. So while UK government sources claim victory over the fact that Brexit talks are to “intensify” next week, the EU has made it clear that there won’t be much to talk about.
EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted on Thursday that the EU is “waiting for legally operative solutions from the UK that are compatible” with the draft withdrawal agreement (EUROPE 12316/6). “Nothing credible has come from the British government,” Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney told reporters in Helsinki on Friday. “If there are alternatives to the [Irish border] backstop that do the same job, well let’s hear them,” he said, adding that simply removing the backstop “is not going to fly”.
MPs and the general population are also taking Mr Johnson seriously. Protests broke out immediately after the suspension of parliament was announced, and a petition to reverse the move has garnered over 1.6 million signatures (as of Friday afternoon). UK opposition parties met this week and are still talking about tabling a motion to extend article 50 and prevent no deal. There are also three legal challenges to the suspension of Parliament, though a preliminary ruling by a Scottish judge on Friday morning went in the government’s favour.
So is there any hope that a deal can be done?
The government is “working at pace to find a wide range of flexible and creative solutions”, a Downing Street spokesperson said. An “alternative arrangements commission” of MPs, peers, academics and experts, is also at work.
Jonathan Faull, the Commission’s former director-general for financial services, along with academics Joseph H.H. Weiler and Daniel Sarmiento, has come up with a solution the EU and UK “can’t refuse”, he says (EUROPE 12314/5). Their answer is to allow for dual customs and regulatory regimes in Ireland and the UK, enshrined in law and punishable under either country’s courts. Both countries would host “trade” or “standard centres” that would check goods coming from the other. In short, the UK government would be liable for any sub-standard or smuggled goods entering the EU.
But the fundamental problem remains: Northern Ireland and Ireland are caught in the middle of the EU, which is intent on protecting its single market, and the UK, which wants to compete with it.
Take the rules of origin conundrum: if the UK lowers tariffs on imports of car parts from the rest of the world, for example, it can produce cars more cheaply than the EU, giving the UK a competitive edge. A similar problem applies to the EU’s backstop, whether it covers the entire UK or is limited to Northern Ireland (or even to specific sectors, such as agri-food): It gives the EU the final say on the rules that would apply in Northern Ireland, which Boris Johnson believes is not compatible with the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement.
Brexit was always going mean difficult choices and the time has come to make them. The tragedy is that Northern Ireland will be collateral damage either way. (Sarah Collins)