Boris Johnson was seen beaming and punching the air in triumph after meeting German and French leaders this week (EUROPE 12311/3).
But what the UK sees as a concession - 30 days to come up with a new Irish border plan - the EU sees as a statement of fact.
We’ve been here before. The UK has 30 days to come up with an alternative plan to keep the Irish border open if it wants to bin the existing “backstop” solution, drafted painstakingly over the last two years. The EU says it will look at any “alternative arrangements” (read: technology and checks at factories and ports) the UK comes up with, but believes they won’t be ready in time for Brexit day.
All of which means the UK will crash out of the EU on 31 October with no deal. The problem is, many businesses (especially in the UK) are unprepared for it. The Sunday Times last week leaked government documents warning of shortages of fuel, food and medicines, as well as delays at ports. Meanwhile, a cross-party group of MPs is trying to find a legal way to stop a no-deal exit, with Jeremy Corbyn now trying to lead the charge.
The EU is not going back to the drawing board. There simply isn’t time (cue the 30-day “deadline” mentioned by German chancellor Angela Merkel). French president Emmanuel Macron said a new deal could be found “without totally reshuffling the withdrawal agreement”. Besides, the Irish backstop has been rejigged several times since negotiations first began in summer 2017. The major change was to ditch plans to keep Northern Ireland aligned with EU rules, in favour of keeping the entire UK aligned, until a trade deal was signed.
The EU’s priority is to keep the single market intact, while protecting peace in Northern Ireland. So the bloc would gladly revert to the original backstop plan - the Northern Ireland-only one - but it remains toxic to the conservatives and their allies in the Democratic Unionist Party. Interestingly, however, a poll by UK company LucidTalk for the Sunday Times last week found that a majority of people in Northern Ireland would support it.
So we’re back to where we started. Mr Johnson may be hoping for the backing of world leaders such as US president Donald Trump when he attends a G7 summit in Biarritz this weekend (EUROPE 12311/1). But he is unlikely to get it from other EU heads, particularly European Council President Donald Tusk, who he will meet on Sunday.
The EU insists it will not do any side deals with the UK on things like aviation, customs and transport, but individual countries are talking to their British counterparts to make sure life can go on as normal on 1 November. For instance, the UK and Irish departments of transport agreed this week that Irish-registered vehicles won’t need any special permits to drive in the UK if they have valid Irish insurance (although the same won’t be true for UK-registered vehicles).
And it’s no wonder. Germany’s Ifo Institute has just published a study showing that a hard Brexit would lead to an 8% fall in “prosperity” (real consumption) in Ireland. It would cut Luxembourg’s and Malta’s real consumption by around 5.2% each, and the UK’s by 2.8%. The Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark are next on the list, while France, Germany, Spain and Italy would also be hit, though less so.
The pecking order underlines why certain countries are more frantic about no-deal preparations - and also why they should be. (Sarah Collins)