The crisis in the Gulf could be brought up at the Foreign Affairs Council on Monday 17 June in Luxembourg, several European sources stressed on Friday 14 June.
The effectiveness of the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the Global Strategy, Sudan and the Middle East will also be on the agenda of the ministerial meeting.
“Ministers come to the Council [...] to discuss, among other things, current events” in the Arabian Sea, explained the High Representative's spokeswoman, questioned about the situation in the Arabian Sea. Two tankers – one Japanese, the other Norwegian – were targeted on 13 June, 1 month after four ships were sabotaged. The United States has accused Iran of being behind the attacks. The EU called for restraint on 14 June, as it believes that the region does not need to be further destabilised.
Ministers will also discuss two more general topics: the effectiveness of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and, with their defence counterparts, the EU's Global Strategy, 3 years after its adoption (see EUROPE 11581/15).
CFSP. Ministers will reflect on practical ideas to improve the effectiveness of the CFSP, in particular to make it more credible, responsive and coordinated. Ahead of the Council, nine Member States had, in an informal document, called for the EU's “potential” as a global player to be realised (see EUROPE 12250/15).
According to a European source, one of the questions asked is: should we always operate as Twenty-Eight or should we act in groups of countries, on behalf of the EU, as is the case with E3 for Iran, for example?
In particular, the Council could discuss the unanimous vote on certain foreign policy issues, as proposed by the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker (see EUROPE 12094/4). “One of the advantages of consensus is that Member States feel bound. [With a qualified majority], there is a risk of false consensus, the risk that a country that has not adopted the position will not follow it at the risk of further fragmenting it”, said a European source, while acknowledging that, even with unanimous decisions, they are not always defended by all ministers once they return home.
Another question is how to increase the EU's place in international organisations.
Overall strategy. The Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence will then discuss the implementation of the overall strategy, based on the third annual progress report presented by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy entitled ‘The EU Global Strategy: three years on, looking forward’. At the end of the discussion, the Council will adopt conclusions on effective multilateralism and security and defence. On the other hand, the question of the participation of non-Member States in permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) projects is not progressing and will therefore not be agreed in the Council.
Sudan. Ministers will discuss the worrying situation in Sudan since the military coup d'état and, in particular, the deadly repression of demonstrations in Khartoum on 3 June, which led the African Union to suspend Sudan from its activities until the effective establishment of a transitional civilian authority (see EUROPE 12271/17). They will first have an exchange by videoconference with the African Union Special Envoy for Sudan, Mohamed El Hacen Lebatt. The discussion will continue between European ministers on how to avoid any escalation of violence, on the possibility of a civil transition and a possible support package that the EU could mobilise once this transition has taken place. A declaration will be adopted at the end of this exchange.
The policy options that may be discussed are “in a good scenario, debt relief and European aid programming, but in a bad scenario, none of the above”, stressed a diplomatic source on Friday 14 June. He stressed the importance of the EU's support for mediation with a view to a civil transition.
The situation presents an internal risk, but also a destabilisation of East Africa, which is why dialogue and civil transition must be encouraged while maintaining the structures of the Sudanese State, another European source said on the same day.
Jordan. The Europeans will discuss the situation in the Middle East ahead of their lunch with the Jordanian Foreign Minister. Over lunch, the situation in the Middle East should be discussed, while the Americans may soon present their peace plan (see EUROPE 12269/19). The economic component of the plan is expected to be unveiled at a conference in Manama, Bahrain, on 25-26 June, to which the Commissioner for Neighbourhood Policy, Johannes Hahn, has been invited. Europeans are expected to emphasise that economic peace cannot replace political peace.
The situation in Syria and the issue of refugee return could also be discussed. While the Jordanians may push for the return of the Syrians to their homes, this can only be done once the conditions are met to the Europeans’ satisfaction.
Finally, tensions in the Gulf could also be discussed with the Jordanian minister.
The Council will be followed by an EU-Jordan Association Council.
Miscellaneous. Briefly, the Council will discuss recent developments in Venezuela, while negotiations between representatives of the opposition and the regime are ongoing. The political crisis in Moldova will also be discussed (see EUROPE 12272/17). The country currently has two presidents and the Venice Commission is due to rule on the legitimacy of the dissolution of parliament by the Constitutional Court on 20 June.
Developments on the Helms-Burton Act, as well as the extraterritorial effects of US sanctions against Iran, could also be mentioned.
Ministers will decide to repeal the empty framework of sanctions against the Maldives (see EUROPE 12269/20) and adopt, without debate, conclusions on the EU's commitment to regional cooperation around the Black Sea, and other conclusions establishing a new EU strategy for Central Asia (see EUROPE 12255/20). Human rights conclusions setting out EU guidelines on access to safe drinking water and sanitation will also be adopted without debate.
See the High Representative's report on the global strategy: https://bit.ly/2KOSqaD (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Aminata Niang and Hermine Donceel)