It was nice while it lasted. But the Brexit break is over, and an impending change of leadership in the UK may force the EU back to the drawing board.
What has been made patently clear in Brussels is that the withdrawal agreement itself is not up for renegotiation. What’s not so clear is how the EU plans to assuage UK fears about the controversial Irish border backstop.
Can a new addendum to the treaty be drawn up to reassure Brexiteers that the backstop measures are temporary and will be phased out? Or will the EU try to win round sceptical UK parliamentarians by offering them a more attractive post-Brexit trade deal as part of the existing political declaration? Or could the EU persuade a new UK prime minister to pare the backstop back to its Northern Ireland-specific elements, as was intended in the first place?
Much will depend on whether the anti-backstop and ‘no deal’ commentary by Tory leadership candidates – particularly former foreign secretary Boris Johnson – turns out to be true. In a 2016 opinion piece in the Guardian newspaper, Libération’s Brussels correspondent, Jean Quatremer, famously called Mr Johnson a “political clown” and pointed to his habit of making up stories while he was working as a correspondent for the Daily Telegraph newspaper. And his flip-flopping between Remain and Leave ahead of the 2016 referendum leave people with little trust in his promises.
Whatever his intentions, Mr Johnson said last week that he would take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, deal or no deal. He has also threatened to withhold the £39 billion financial settlement if the EU doesn’t reopen the withdrawal treaty. And as of this week, he is the firm favourite to win the Tory leadership contest, which is due to wind up in mid-July.
Conservative MPs held their first secret ballot to elect the new party leader on Thursday, and Mr Johnson won more votes than the following three contenders – foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, environment secretary Michael Gove and former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab – combined. There are now six candidates left in the running, down from the 10 who officially announced they were running. Next week MPs will whittle down the shortlist to two names. And Mr Johnson is expected to be one of them.
“Johnson’s commanding lead suggests his low-key campaign is working,” said Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman in a note. “His rivals desperately need him to make a mistake.” And, he adds, “a Johnson victory would make a no-deal exit more likely”.
UK Chancellor Philip Hammond, meanwhile, who was in Luxembourg today for an EU finance ministers’ meeting, said he would “not recommend” the new prime minister renege on the UK’s financial commitments, and said he would “not be able to serve in a government that had, as its policy, leaving the European Union without a deal”.
The EU’s position (at least in public) remains the same: no renegotiation of the treaty itself. But EU officials have been less clear about what else they could do to make the agreement more palatable. Whatever happens, they are preparing for the worst and this week sent a(nother) pointed message to the UK on the subject. A Commission assessment paper (its fifth such publication) said preparations are well underway in all member states, and that no new legislation will be necessary before Brexit day (EUROPE 12273/21).
However, the communication also said EU governments must be vigilant on citizens’ rights, medicines, customs, transport, fisheries and financial services. Insurance firms and payment services providers were also warned that “residual issues remain” and that they should finalise all their contingency plans before Brexit day on 31 October 2019.
EU leaders hope not to have to have to discuss Brexit at next week’s EU summit, and it’s not officially on the agenda. But they may have to revise that agenda if Boris Johnson repeats his stellar performance in next week’s second ballot. (Sarah Collins)