The European elections in Germany on Sunday 26 May confirmed the division of German society between young and old, east and west, as well as the decline of the major popular parties (see EUROPE 12260/4).
The Grand Coalition government between the Christian Democratic Party (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been shaken by this decline, but it will last at least until the end of 2019, time to resist the regional elections this autumn in the East, where the populists of the AfD have reaffirmed their power.
Meanwhile, among the future German MEPs, major manoeuvres have begun to consolidate – or not – the position of the European People's Party's (EPP) top candidate (‘Spitzenkandidat’), the Bavarian Manfred Weber.
Even though it is losing ground with 28.9% of the vote, the CDU/CSU remains the leading German political force. “Our first objective has been achieved”, concluded CDU President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Now it is time to “defend Germany's interests in Europe”, she said. She added that the message was “sent” to Chancellor Angela Merkel “to defend our candidate Manfred Weber as President of the Commission”.
The Greens in a position of strength
Will Mrs Kramp-Karrenbauer get the German Greens to support this cause? Nothing could be less certain. The Alliance 90/The Greens is considered the real winner of this election. By doubling its 2014 results to 20.5%, it became the second largest party in Germany ahead of the SPD.
This result puts the Greens in a “strong position”, noted Claire Demesmay of the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP) on Monday 27 May in Berlin. “They will naturally pay the highest bidder for their support in terms of climate”, she said.
Echoing the statements of the two top European Green Party lists on Sunday (see EUROPE 12263/2), Annalena Baerbock, Co-President of the Alliance, gave a double signal, “The President of the Commission can only be chosen from among the Spitzenkandidats”, and, this time, “it might well be a woman”.
This gives hope to the Liberals and their leader, the Dane Margrethe Vestager.
Faithful to his French ally, Emmanuel Macron, the president of the German liberals of the FDP, Christian Lindner, nevertheless recalled on the contrary the lack of respect he has for the Spitzenkandidat system. But with 5.5% of the vote, the FDP will have little influence in the German debate.
A weakened coalition government
With an SPD relegated to 3rd place (15.8% of the vote) and a CDU that lost 11% of its voters, the governing coalition is “weakened in European negotiations”, noted Claire Demesmay of the DGAP. According to her, Mrs Merkel will have no choice but to defend Mr Weber, “at least out of loyalty to her CSU allies” from which the head of the list of the European Christian Democratic family comes.
In the negotiations on appointments to the main European roles, “it is not impossible, however, that Germany may renounce the presidency of the Commission for a good position on monetary issues, particularly at the ECB”, the political scientist analysed, for whom “there is room for manoeuvre on this side”.
But, for Christophe Gatz of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, close to the SPD, this tactic is unlikely to succeed, as “the German candidate for the ECB, Jens Weidmann,[has] even less chance of winning a majority than Manfred Weber”.
Before weighing in in Brussels, the Greens' result has already influenced German policy. “We are now at the centre of the political debate”, said Greens Co-President Robert Habeck. And with him, the young electorate: 34% of 18-24 year olds voted for green candidates, compared to 11% for the CDU and 8% for the SPD. Six of the first ten candidates on the Alliance list are under 40 years old and six others under 30.
“We must adopt concrete measures to fight climate change, quickly and without false compromises”, promised Finance Minister SPD Olaf Scholz.
Mrs Merkel recently spoke out in favour of climate neutrality in the European Union by 2050 (see EUROPE 12254/7).
Greens/AfD preparing for campaign in the East
The upcoming German regional elections in September herald a culture clash between the Greens, who triumphed in the major cities of the West, and the populists from the AfD.
While it stagnated with 11% of the votes at the national level, the Eurosceptic party became the leading party in several eastern regions: in Saxony with 25.3% and in Brandenburg, around Berlin, with 19.9% of the votes.
Faced with this announced shake-up, “the coalition parties will try to make as little noise as possible”, predicted Claire Demesmay. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)