On the eve of the European elections (see EUROPE 12263/1), the resolutely pro-European political groups in the European Parliament reiterated their support, on Sunday 26 May, for the institutional innovation of lead candidates (‘Spitzenkandidats’) of a European political party, which made it possible in 2014 to appoint the Luxembourger Christian Democrat Jean-Claude Juncker to head the European Commission.
There therefore seems to be a political majority in the new European Parliament that will insist to the European Council on the importance of respecting this process (see EUROPE 11956/2). The conference of political group presidents to be held in Brussels on Tuesday morning, 28 May, will be important in this respect. It could be an opportunity to send a message to the European leaders who will meet that very evening to analyse the results of the elections with a view to making appointments to future senior European positions, including the Presidency of the Commission.
However, it is now clear that the Christian Democratic, EPP (179 seats) and Social Democratic, S&D (150 seats) groups will not be able to impose their views on their own. Spitzenkandidat or not, any political leader that the European Council proposes to the European Parliament to chair the Commission will indeed have to obtain an absolute majority in Parliament, i.e. 376 votes.
The contribution of other pro-European forces, such as the liberal ALDE&R group (107 seats) and Greens/EFA (70 seats), will be numerically essential and politically conditioned on concrete commitments.
Christian Democrats still believe in their star
Despite the strong support of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the EPP group's first place results in Parliament, it has to be said that Bavarian Manfred Weber’s (CSU) candidacy does not have the same momentum as that of Mr Juncker in 2014. The CDU/CSU obtained lukewarm results, and the EPP group in Parliament is expected to lose around 40 seats.
Nevertheless, the Christian Democratic Spitzenkandidat believes in his chances. “Let's stick to the ideal of Spitzenkandidat!” he said. According to him, there will be “no stable majority possible against the EPP”, nor without the S&D, ALDE and Greens groups. He called on all pro-European forces to unite, saying he was open to input on both content and nominations.
“The Spitzenkandidat system is not dead. One thing is certain: the EPP has won the European elections. For us, there is only one position, the Presidency of the European Commission, and only one candidate: Manfred Weber”, said the President of the European People's Party, Joseph Daul (France), confirming that his political family would never negotiate with the far right.
The option of a progressive alliance excluding the EPP
Unlike in 2014, when they quickly supported Mr Juncker's candidacy, the Social Democrats are convinced that the tide is turning. They are arguing for a progressive alliance that would include groups from the far left to the Liberals in order to install Dutchman Frans Timmermans as head of the Commission.
Rejecting Mr Weber's call for stability, Mr Timmermans called on progressive forces to develop “a programme for the next 5 years” that responds “to the dreams and sometimes the fears” of European citizens. He cited the fight against climate change, tax justice and the defence of democracy.
On Monday morning (02:30), a progressive alliance excluding the EPP could hope for 365 seats (150 S&D + 107 ALDE&R + 70 Greens/EFA + 38 GUE/NGL), provided it remains cohesive.
The Liberals also believe they can rally such a progressive alliance around them in Parliament. Now an official candidate for the presidency of the Commission, Dane Margrethe Vestager ironically pointed out that, as Competition Commissioner, she spent 5 years “breaking monopolies”. Noting that the “monopoly of power [was] broken” in Parliament, she welcomed the statements of the social democrats and environmentalists on their thoughts about fundamental priorities for the next institutional cycle, including the “rule of law”.
On behalf of the liberal ALDE&R group, Belgian Guy Verhofstadt argued that “no solid pro-European majority” will be possible without the participation of the centrist group. He refused to talk about his personal future when asked about his ambition to chair the new Parliament.
Within other political forces, such as the environmentalists and the far left, whose support is essential to form a majority without the Christian Democrats, the willingness to talk was visible.
“The Spitzenkandidat process is important for improving European democracy”, said the environmental co-Spitzenkandidat, Dutchman Bas Eickhout, confirming that his group would only vote for a person who had previously been nominated as a head of a ticket. The other co-Spitzenkandidat, German Ska Keller, emphasised climate protection, social Europe and the defence of democracy as conditions for support from her political family.
As for the lead candidate on the far left, Belgian Nico Cué saw “outstretched hands”. In particular, any progressive alliance should serve to increase democracy in European institutions and to achieve a real social Europe with binding rules, he said. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)