Paralysis is likely to take hold in the United Kingdom and it is likely that the October European Council will have to consider a new request for an extension of Article 50 of the Treaty, as the Twenty-Seven had already granted London an additional 6 months on 10 April to manage an orderly exit from the EU (see EUROPE 12233/1). This scenario is the one anticipated by former British MEP Andrew Duff, President of the Spinelli Group, for the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank.
In a publication from 24 April, he already observed that the potential holding of European elections in the United Kingdom on 23 May will bring its motley batch of deputies, elected in haste and on “ambiguous” programmes. These elections will be a disguised, mini referendum on Brexit, according to him.
He also observes that, unlike Mrs May who accepted the Twenty-Seven's request to observe a good-faith approach on 10 April, these injunctions of ‘good behaviour’ do not apply to British MEPs at all.
For the former MEP, this situation is flawed for both London and the European Council, which, by giving in to the “flexibility” proposed by Donald Tusk, simply “lost control” of Brexit and made itself dependent on “British political whims”, also subordinating “the future of the EU” to it.
As for the prospect of a second referendum, Andrew Duff is not in favour of it, nor of a second “public confirmation consultation”. “Apart from Donald Tusk, all leaders know that a second referendum will not solve British problems”, the former MEP said. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)